Barcelona CH · F · Clay · 7 Apr 2024
Bernabe Zapata Miralles v Nick Hardt
87–92 in points · Nick Hardt won
Why it went the way it did
Nick Hardt won 5.2 more points than Bernabe Zapata Miralles relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bernabe Zapata Miralles's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.0, net execution −1.9, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | Nick Hardt | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −2.8 | −2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | +1.1 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +0.6 | +1.7 | +2.3 | +4.6 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +4.5 | −3.0 | +1.7 | −1.0 | +3.6 | −1.6 | +1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | −1.2 | +0.8 | −0.6 | −1.1 | +0.5 | +5.5 | +4.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 | −5.1 | +1.0 | −4.0 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −1.9 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | +0.7 | −0.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.2 | +1.9 | −3.7 | −2.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +3.9 | +3.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | Nick Hardt | Net, Bernabe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.4 | +1.4 | −2.8 | |
| 2 | +4.0 | +1.0 | +3.0 | |
| 3 | −4.6 | +0.8 | −5.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Bernabe Zapata Miralles serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 48% | 3% 0% | 35% 29% |
| 2 | 61% 55% | 3% 100% | 36% 50% |
| 3 | 61% 59% | 4% 0% | 36% 30% |
Set to set +0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nick Hardt serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 50% | 10% 67% | 41% 25% |
| 2 | 70% 29% | – | 30% 50% |
| 3 | 62% 78% | 3% 100% | 34% 40% |
Set to set +0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Bernabe Zapata Miralles
10.6 points left on the table across 429 shots 2.48 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.73 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH down the line ×27; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Nick Hardt
12.1 points left on the table across 433 shots 2.78 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×29; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.12 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts