ATP · Right-handed · 3 charted matches · 2022–2024
Nick Hardt
Shot expected value
The share of points Nick Hardt goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 126 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 36% | 48.8%±10.2 | 43.7% |
| BH crosscourt | 28% | 44.6%±11.0 | 47.6% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 10% | 40.9%±14.1 | 42.5% |
| FH inside-out | 9% | 43.1%±14.6 | 51.8% |
| BH down the line | 8% | 54.3%±15.0 | 46.4% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 60 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 35% | 54.4%±12.8 | 51.5% |
| FH through the middle | 22% | 49.7%±14.3 | 47.0% |
| FH crosscourt | 22% | 56.2%±14.2 | 52.7% |
| BH through the middle | 22% | 43.5%±14.2 | 46.8% |
Return +1: drive to your backhand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 54 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 31% | 53.0%±13.5 | 43.0% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 19% | 53.9%±15.0 | 40.9% |
| BH crosscourt | 19% | 48.0%±15.0 | 46.9% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 49 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 29% | 31.7%±13.1 | 43.8% |
| BH crosscourt | 29% | 45.9%±14.1 | 48.0% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 24% | 60.7%±14.2 | 42.1% |
Serve under pressure
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 50% | 70% / 73% |
| Body | 19% | 0% ▼ | 60% / 63% |
| T | 34% | 50% ▲ | 66% / 75% |
99 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 66% | 80% ▲ | 67% / 73% |
| Body | 14% | 7% | 63% / 63% |
| T | 20% | 13% | 72% / 72% |
79 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 62.3%±9.0 n=48 |
| Body | 18% | 57.3%±11.6 n=19 |
| T | 35% | 57.1%±10.0 n=36 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.63).
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 68% | 62.9%±8.2 n=64 |
| Body | 13% | 60.1%±12.4 n=12 |
| T | 19% | 60.8%±11.6 n=18 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.85).
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 10 | 40% | +3.3±12.8 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 12 | 30% | +1.5±11.6 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 53 | 33% | +5.5±8.5 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 9 | 41% | +4.3±13.0 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 36 | 42% | +16.6±10.0 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 28 | 35% | +7.6±10.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 6 | 55% | +5.7±13.6 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 4 | 52% | +3.0±14.1 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 26 | 53% | +4.3±11.0 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 12 | 54% | +5.0±12.6 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 23 | 56% | +6.7±11.2 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 11 | 50% | +1.7±12.8 |
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
Most exposed to
| FH to their backhand · rally | +2.1 | 129 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans