Munich · SF · Clay · 20 Apr 2024
Jan Lennard Struff v Holger Rune
53–24 in points · Jan Lennard Struff won
Why it went the way it did
Jan Lennard Struff won 15.1 more points than Holger Rune relative to what the serve alone predicted. Holger Rune's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.1, backhand execution −2.4, slice execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jan Lennard Struff | Holger Rune | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.7 | +2.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +2.1 | +2.4 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −1.0 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −2.4 | −3.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.2 | −0.9 | −2.2 | −0.3 | −3.1 | −1.3 | −4.7 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −0.5 | +6.2 | +5.6 | −1.0 | −3.6 | −4.9 | −9.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Jan Lennard Struff | Holger Rune | Net, Jan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.6 | −3.4 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +4.0 | −6.1 | +10.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jan Lennard Struff serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 64% | 4% 0% | 35% 100% |
| 2 | 54% 100% | – | 46% 83% |
Within sets +0.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Holger Rune serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 56% | 13% 67% | 48% 45% |
| 2 | 39% 0% | 11% 50% | 50% 44% |
Within sets +0.55 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jan Lennard Struff
3.9 points left on the table across 104 shots 3.75 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Holger Rune
4.5 points left on the table across 96 shots 4.66 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts