Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 28 May 2024
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v David Goffin
137–163 in points · David Goffin won
Why it went the way it did
David Goffin won 15.9 more points than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard relative to what the serve alone predicted. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's biggest leaks: forehand execution −6.4, slice shot selection −4.8, backhand execution −4.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | David Goffin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | +0.7 | +2.1 | +2.4 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −2.9 | −3.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | −0.1 | +2.6 | +2.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Return | +0.2 | −1.8 | −2.2 | −3.8 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +6.1 | −6.4 | −1.0 | +0.8 | +5.3 | −1.8 | +4.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.3 | −4.8 | −4.7 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +2.3 | +2.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −4.8 | −0.9 | −5.8 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −2.2 | −4.1 |
| Net | −0.6 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +1.8 | +3.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +0.3 | −1.0 |
| All shots | −2.0 | −0.5 | −11.2 | −13.7 | +1.6 | +2.5 | −1.9 | +2.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | David Goffin | Net, Giovanni | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.6 | −2.6 | +2.0 | |
| 2 | −4.7 | −1.3 | −3.4 | |
| 3 | −0.7 | +5.8 | −6.6 | |
| 4 | −1.7 | −0.5 | −1.2 | |
| 5 | −6.0 | +0.7 | −6.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 75% | 26% 43% | 30% 75% |
| 2 | 52% 54% | 16% 75% | 32% 88% |
| 3 | 47% 60% | 16% 40% | 38% 42% |
| 4 | 38% 67% | 8% 67% | 54% 67% |
| 5 | 41% 44% | 13% 80% | 46% 56% |
Set to set +0.98 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.62 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
David Goffin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 57% | 11% 67% | 37% 60% |
| 2 | 58% 80% | 8% 100% | 35% 78% |
| 3 | 35% 75% | 4% 100% | 61% 71% |
| 4 | 62% 70% | 5% 50% | 32% 75% |
| 5 | 52% 77% | 12% 33% | 36% 89% |
Set to set −0.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
13.8 points left on the table across 450 shots 3.06 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
David Goffin
10.7 points left on the table across 450 shots 2.37 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts