RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 75 charted matches · 2013–2025

David Goffin

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.7% ±2.4 raw 60.7% · tour 63.4% · 6,321 points
Return points won 40.8% ±2.5 raw 37.6% · tour 36.6% · 6,345 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.20 ±0.05 better than 94% of ATP · raw +0.20
Shot selection +0.25 ±0.08 better than 76% of ATP · raw +0.25
Execution −0.15 ±0.26 better than 60% of ATP · raw −0.18
Tactical adaptability −0.05 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 73 matches
Adaptation speed +0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.23 ±0.45 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 4,684 shots · better than 49% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.15 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 96% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 34,232 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points David Goffin goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 2,338 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 46.1%±2.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 17% 42.8%±3.9 43.7%
BH down the line 16% 45.0%±4.2 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 39.0%±5.5 42.5%
FH inside-in 5% 56.1%±6.8 54.7%
FH inside-out 5% 54.3%±7.3 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 31.5%±7.4 35.1%
BH slice down the line 2% 32.0%±9.4 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,759 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 44% 46.3%±2.9 46.6%
FH down the line 30% 47.0%±3.5 44.7%
FH through the middle 20% 40.5%±4.2 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 2% 22.6%±9.1 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 2% 74.8%±9.5 69.3%
FH slice down the line 1% 19.8%±10.9 25.6%
FH slice crosscourt 1% 32.9%±13.3 30.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,517 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 30% 50.3%±3.8 52.7%
FH down the line 21% 49.8%±4.4 51.5%
FH through the middle 14% 47.6%±5.4 47.0%
BH crosscourt 13% 50.8%±5.6 49.1%
BH through the middle 10% 47.3%±6.2 46.8%
BH down the line 5% 54.6%±8.6 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 2% 74.3%±9.8 70.5%
FH crosscourt + approach 1% 75.6%±11.6 69.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,512 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 43.1%±3.1 48.0%
BH through the middle 16% 43.8%±5.1 43.8%
BH down the line 13% 40.6%±5.4 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 37.9%±5.9 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 5% 31.5%±8.0 35.1%
FH inside-in 4% 65.7%±8.6 54.3%
FH inside-out 3% 50.0%±10.4 52.6%
BH slice down the line 2% 35.9%±11.8 35.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied David Goffin's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 624 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 52% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 6% 7% 63% / 63%
T 50% 41% ▼ 76% / 75%

3,145 normal · 147 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 58% 71% / 73%
Body 7% 7% 62% / 63%
T 41% 35% 65% / 72%

2,522 normal · 477 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 63.4%±2.1 n=1,442 57% ▲
Body6% 61.4%±5.3 n=201 0% ▼
T50% 61.3%±2.0 n=1,649 43% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.44).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 59.5%±2.0 n=1,600 66% ▲
Body7% 58.7%±5.3 n=207 0% ▼
T40% 58.2%±2.3 n=1,192 34% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.77).
Optimal mix: ±0.0 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.16 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.4±1.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (2,855 repeats, 3,290 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 217 36% −1.3±5.0
1stAd courtT 821 28% +0.1±2.5
1stAd courtWide 773 28% +0.4±2.6
1stDeuce courtBody 186 51% +14.7±5.6
1stDeuce courtT 926 26% +0.9±2.3
1stDeuce courtWide 912 30% +2.6±2.5
2ndAd courtBody 475 55% +5.6±3.6
2ndAd courtT 170 50% +1.1±5.8
2ndAd courtWide 551 47% −1.3±3.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 489 49% −0.3±3.6
2ndDeuce courtT 554 50% +0.5±3.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 231 49% +1.1±5.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than David Goffin's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 60% · −3.4±6.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 55% · −8.9±6.2 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 4.1% · won 57% · −6.9±4.9 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 56% · −8.0±5.1 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 54% · −9.4±5.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.8% · won 53% · +12.5±6.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.9% · won 52% · +11.3±6.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.4% · won 50% · +9.3±6.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.7% · won 46% · +5.7±5.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.5% · won 46% · +5.5±5.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 53% · +5.8±5.0 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 52% · +4.7±4.2 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 52% · +4.1±3.9 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 53% · +5.9±5.8 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 52% · +4.6±5.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often David Goffin wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 54% · +5.3±4.4 vs own baseline · +5.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jo Wilfried Tsonga (1/6), Tomas Machac (2/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.3% · won 59% · +10.4±8.8 vs own baseline · +8.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (4/6), Gilles Arnaud Bailly (4/6)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line + approach used 0.2% · won 63% · +14.2±10.6 vs own baseline · +3.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 58% · +9.6±8.6 vs own baseline · +3.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (5/6)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 54% · +5.0±6.0 vs own baseline · +1.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (3/7), Gael Monfils (8/18)
  6. T serve → BH slice through the middle return, deep → FH crosscourt used 0.1% · won 63% · +14.0±11.9 vs own baseline · +22.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+2.12,572
FH to the middle · return +1+1.7233
FH to the middle · return+1.61,175
FH to their forehand · return+1.5581
FH to the middle · serve +1+1.4394

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−2.32,165
FH to their forehand · return−2.2555
FH to the middle · return +1−2.1374
BH to the middle · serve +1−1.9353
BH slice to their backhand · return +1−1.6229

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +2.45, Miomir Kecmanovic +2.22, Nishesh Basavareddy +2.01, Roberto Bautista Agut +1.95, Casper Ruud +1.92

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +1.54, Fabian Marozsan +1.49, Pedro Martinez +1.43, Roberto Carballes Baena +1.34, Alexander Shevchenko +1.30

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Deep returns33%
T serves · deuce50%
Avg rally length4.3
Forehand share56%
Wide serves · ad53%
FH down the line32%
BH down the line22%
T serves · ad40%
Run-around forehands20%
Wide serves · deuce44%
Backhand slice17%
Serve & volley1%
Points at net9%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
Point-ending shots21.5%
Unforced errors / shot9.0%
Chipped returns8%
1st serve in58%
Through the middle20%

Plays most like

  1. Borna Coric 2015–2025 plan v
  2. Nicolas Almagro 2006–2019 plan v
  3. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  4. Jack Draper 2022–2026 plan v
  5. Sebastian Ofner 2022–2025 plan v
  6. Sebastian Korda 2021–2026 plan v
  7. Learner Tien 2022–2026 plan v
  8. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Marat Safin 1998–2009
  2. Magnus Norman 2000–2001
  3. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001

Charted matches