Vicenza CH · R16 · Clay · 29 May 2024
Genaro Alberto Olivieri v Adrian Andreev
48–62 in points · Adrian Andreev won
Why it went the way it did
Adrian Andreev won 8.2 more points than Genaro Alberto Olivieri relative to what the serve alone predicted. Genaro Alberto Olivieri's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.8, slice execution −3.5, backhand direction choices −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | Adrian Andreev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.9 | +1.9 | +2.6 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +2.2 | +3.2 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +2.5 | −0.2 | +2.4 | −0.5 | +3.0 | +1.4 | +3.9 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.3 | +1.0 | −0.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −7.4 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −0.8 | −2.7 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −1.0 | −1.0 | −1.9 | −3.9 | −0.5 | +0.9 | +3.9 | +4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | Adrian Andreev | Net, Genaro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.0 | +2.2 | −5.3 | |
| 2 | −0.9 | +2.0 | −2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Genaro Alberto Olivieri serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 50% | 3% 100% | 49% 39% |
| 2 | 48% 45% | – | 52% 75% |
Set to set −1.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Adrian Andreev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 53% | 5% 0% | 27% 83% |
| 2 | 46% 77% | 4% 100% | 50% 64% |
Within sets +0.93 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
7.2 points left on the table across 277 shots 2.60 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
Adrian Andreev
6.9 points left on the table across 281 shots 2.45 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts