RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2022–2025

Adrian Andreev

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.0% ±3.7 raw 59.2% · tour 63.4% · 601 points
Return points won 38.7% ±3.8 raw 40.8% · tour 36.6% · 522 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.03 ±0.12 better than 66% of ATP · raw +0.04
Shot selection −0.07 ±0.36 better than 44% of ATP · raw −0.04
Execution −1.22 ±0.62 better than 18% of ATP · raw −0.80
Points left on the table 2.25 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 88% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,202 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Adrian Andreev goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 248 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 33% 56.1%±8.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 32% 51.3%±8.4 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 50.0%±12.8 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 7% 41.7%±13.5 35.1%
BH down the line 5% 46.3%±14.3 46.4%
FH inside-out 5% 64.8%±13.7 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 152 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 37% 53.3%±9.4 52.7%
FH through the middle 16% 41.8%±12.2 47.0%
BH through the middle 14% 42.4%±12.7 46.8%
BH crosscourt 13% 53.4%±13.1 49.1%
FH down the line 12% 56.0%±13.2 51.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 136 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 53.3%±9.8 46.6%
FH through the middle 27% 39.0%±11.1 41.5%
FH down the line 26% 56.8%±11.4 44.7%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 100 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 31% 46.1%±11.7 43.0%
BH crosscourt 28% 50.8%±12.1 46.9%
BH slice crosscourt 20% 46.6%±13.1 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 11% 31.7%±14.0 32.6%
BH down the line 11% 46.1%±15.0 44.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −6 How much less varied Adrian Andreev's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 52 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 75% ▲ 63% / 73%
Body 2% 0% 63% / 63%
T 46% 25% ▼ 73% / 75%

304 normal · 8 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 48% 69% / 73%
Body 4% 9% 64% / 63%
T 49% 43% 67% / 72%

245 normal · 44 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 57.5%±5.8 n=166 42% ▼
Body2% 58.8%±13.7 n=5 0% ▼
T45% 60.8%±6.1 n=141 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.50).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 58.7%±6.3 n=137 42% ▼
Body5% 60.7%±12.1 n=14 0% ▼
T48% 60.1%±6.2 n=138 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.74).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.16 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.0±7.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (254 repeats, 335 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 9 41% +4.3±13.0
1stAd courtT 52 31% +3.0±8.4
1stAd courtWide 84 35% +8.0±7.4
1stDeuce courtBody 6 42% +5.0±13.5
1stDeuce courtT 95 32% +7.3±6.9
1stDeuce courtWide 54 36% +8.7±8.6
2ndAd courtBody 28 38% −11.8±10.5
2ndAd courtT 4 46% −2.9±14.1
2ndAd courtWide 68 47% −0.9±8.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 16 49% +0.3±12.1
2ndDeuce courtT 90 47% −2.3±7.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 11 50% +1.7±12.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Adrian Andreev's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.4% · won 73% · +8.0±10.5 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 6.0% · won 66% · +1.4±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.8% · won 61% · −4.1±10.8 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 7.3% · won 57% · −8.0±10.7 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 6.0% · won 53% · −12.1±11.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, short used 8.7% · won 48% · +3.3±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 11.2% · won 46% · +1.8±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 9.1% · won 43% · −1.5±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, short used 9.1% · won 39% · −5.3±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 11.2% · won 39% · −5.2±10.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 64% · +10.9±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 7.7% · won 60% · +7.6±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 5.5% · won 59% · +6.5±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH through the middle used 5.7% · won 58% · +5.4±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 6.2% · won 58% · +5.1±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Adrian Andreev wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 60% · +7.3±12.5 vs own baseline · +23.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Benjamin Bonzi (6/8)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.2% · won 57% · +4.6±12.3 vs own baseline · +17.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Clement Chidekh (5/11), Benjamin Bonzi (6/6)
  3. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 55% · +2.8±13.0 vs own baseline · +12.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Benjamin Bonzi (6/10)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 51% · −1.1±12.6 vs own baseline · +1.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Benjamin Bonzi (4/12)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 43% · −9.0±12.3 vs own baseline · −17.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Benjamin Bonzi (4/16)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · rally+3.5215
BH to the middle · rally+2.5130
FH to their forehand · rally+1.5214
BH to the middle · return+1.3184
BH to their backhand · rally−0.8147

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−2.8128
FH to their backhand · rally−0.4198
BH to their backhand · rally+0.3169
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.8127
FH to their forehand · rally+2.3177

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Cameron Norrie, Daniil Medvedev, Dusan Lajovic, Ugo Humbert

Charted matches