Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 8 Jul 2024
Jelena Ostapenko v Yulia Putintseva
63–49 in points · Jelena Ostapenko won
Why it went the way it did
Jelena Ostapenko won 4.9 more points than Yulia Putintseva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yulia Putintseva's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.4, slice shot selection −1.7, serve 1st execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jelena Ostapenko | Yulia Putintseva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +1.2 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.1 | −0.2 | +1.4 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −2.4 | −2.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −1.5 | −0.2 | −1.7 | +0.6 | −1.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.1 | +0.6 | −1.1 | +0.6 | −0.2 | −1.6 | −2.5 | −4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Jelena Ostapenko | Yulia Putintseva | Net, Jelena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −3.0 | +4.0 | |
| 2 | −0.4 | −1.3 | +0.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jelena Ostapenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 55% | 10% 50% | 38% 75% |
| 2 | 38% 56% | 17% 63% | 45% 52% |
Within sets −0.94 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yulia Putintseva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 40% | 29% 50% | 24% 40% |
| 2 | 57% 54% | 17% 25% | 26% 50% |
Within sets +1.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jelena Ostapenko
2.3 points left on the table across 128 shots 1.83 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH drop shot through the middle ×1; FH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
Yulia Putintseva
3.6 points left on the table across 126 shots 2.86 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts