Braunschweig CH · F · Clay · 13 Jul 2024
Botic Van De Zandschulp v Roberto Carballes Baena
46–63 in points · Roberto Carballes Baena won
Why it went the way it did
Roberto Carballes Baena won 6.7 more points than Botic Van De Zandschulp relative to what the serve alone predicted. Botic Van De Zandschulp's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.3, backhand execution −2.5, slice shot selection −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.5 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −2.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.4 | +1.6 | +2.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.1 | +1.9 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +3.5 | −4.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.3 | +0.1 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +2.2 | −2.5 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +2.7 | +2.9 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.1 | −0.5 | −2.4 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −1.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.6 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +5.2 | −8.1 | −2.1 | +0.3 | +2.2 | +2.1 | +4.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Roberto Carballes Baena | Net, Botic | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.3 | +2.0 | −7.3 | |
| 2 | +3.2 | +2.6 | +0.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Botic Van De Zandschulp serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 50% | 4% 100% | 50% 31% |
| 2 | 48% 70% | 5% 0% | 48% 70% |
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Roberto Carballes Baena serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 70% | 16% 100% | 32% 67% |
| 2 | 42% 33% | 33% 86% | 26% 82% |
Within sets +0.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Botic Van De Zandschulp
6.2 points left on the table across 290 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Roberto Carballes Baena
6.1 points left on the table across 264 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts