RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 24 charted matches · 2017–2024

Roberto Carballes Baena

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.9% ±2.9 raw 58.8% · tour 63.4% · 1,917 points
Return points won 37.6% ±3.0 raw 35.6% · tour 36.6% · 1,814 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.06 ±0.09 better than 41% of ATP · raw −0.06
Shot selection +0.14 ±0.19 better than 68% of ATP · raw +0.14
Execution +0.70 ±0.38 better than 89% of ATP · raw +0.72
Tactical adaptability +0.09 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 24 matches
Adaptation speed +0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.61 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 48% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 11,211 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Roberto Carballes Baena goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 886 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 47% 49.4%±3.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 19% 45.3%±6.0 43.7%
BH down the line 11% 49.8%±7.7 46.4%
FH inside-out 9% 55.2%±8.0 51.8%
FH inside-in 5% 51.4%±10.0 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 3% 26.7%±10.9 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 36.9%±12.2 42.5%
BH slice down the line 1% 30.4%±13.6 37.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 655 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 55% 49.6%±4.2 48.0%
BH through the middle 15% 48.1%±7.5 43.8%
BH down the line 8% 53.7%±9.5 46.5%
FH inside-out 6% 64.7%±10.3 52.6%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 27.7%±10.2 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 4% 30.7%±10.8 35.1%
FH inside-in 4% 60.1%±12.3 54.3%
BH slice down the line 2% 36.0%±14.2 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 560 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 35% 52.5%±5.6 44.7%
FH through the middle 28% 37.2%±6.0 41.5%
FH crosscourt 25% 43.4%±6.4 46.6%
FH slice through the middle 6% 21.4%±9.4 24.5%
FH slice down the line 3% 25.4%±11.9 25.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 463 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 30% 54.3%±6.5 51.5%
FH crosscourt 20% 60.7%±7.6 52.7%
FH through the middle 16% 46.2%±8.5 47.0%
BH through the middle 13% 43.7%±9.1 46.8%
BH crosscourt 12% 59.5%±9.2 49.1%
BH down the line 5% 42.0%±12.5 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 3% 66.0%±13.8 70.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −7 How much less varied Roberto Carballes Baena's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 210 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 51% 68% / 73%
Body 12% 16% 56% / 63%
T 42% 33% ▼ 72% / 75%

941 normal · 49 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 62% 56% 63% / 73%
Body 14% 19% 61% / 63%
T 24% 25% 63% / 72%

761 normal · 161 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 60.7%±3.7 n=454 55% ▲
Body12% 54.3%±6.7 n=121 0% ▼
T42% 61.9%±3.8 n=415 45% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.15).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide61% 55.2%±3.4 n=560 48% ▼
Body15% 58.2%±6.3 n=136 14%
T25% 62.3%±5.0 n=226 38% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.08).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.51 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.4±4.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (848 repeats, 1,016 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 29 37% +0.5±10.4
1stAd courtT 218 27% −1.3±4.6
1stAd courtWide 274 27% −0.5±4.2
1stDeuce courtBody 41 38% +1.3±9.5
1stDeuce courtT 229 25% −0.2±4.4
1stDeuce courtWide 318 29% +2.2±4.0
2ndAd courtBody 89 48% −1.6±7.5
2ndAd courtT 71 48% −1.0±8.2
2ndAd courtWide 174 49% +0.9±5.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 99 49% +0.4±7.2
2ndDeuce courtT 147 47% −2.3±6.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 120 46% −1.8±6.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Roberto Carballes Baena's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 62% · +0.9±9.6 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.6% · won 61% · −0.2±7.7 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 59% · −3.0±10.1 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-out used 3.1% · won 57% · −4.2±9.0 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 58% · −3.9±8.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 4.2% · won 52% · +12.2±9.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 6.0% · won 49% · +9.3±8.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 4.3% · won 50% · +10.3±9.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 3.4% · won 46% · +6.0±9.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.1% · won 47% · +7.5±11.1 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.3% · won 58% · +8.2±6.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 1.4% · won 59% · +9.2±10.0 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 2.4% · won 56% · +6.7±8.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 2.5% · won 56% · +5.9±8.3 vs own baseline
  5. BH down the line → FH down the line used 1.7% · won 56% · +6.7±9.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Roberto Carballes Baena wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.7% · won 61% · +11.6±9.9 vs own baseline · +15.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alexandre Muller (4/7), Jannik Sinner (5/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 60% · +10.4±9.4 vs own baseline · +10.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jaume Munar (3/7), Casper Ruud (6/8)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 55% · +5.1±5.9 vs own baseline · +7.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (2/7), Carlos Alcaraz (2/6)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.7% · won 60% · +10.1±9.9 vs own baseline · +18.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (2/7), Daniil Medvedev (8/10)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 55% · +5.3±6.6 vs own baseline · +9.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (3/10), Francisco Cerundolo (3/7)
  6. FH down the line → BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 63% · +13.3±12.3 vs own baseline · +31.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+2.9670
FH to the middle · rally+2.6441
BH to the middle · rally+1.8403
BH to their backhand · return +1+1.8218
BH to their backhand · return+1.7309

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · return +1−3.4220
FH to their backhand · serve +1−3.3323
BH to the middle · return−2.7396
FH to their backhand · rally−2.5747
FH to their forehand · return−2.2170

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +2.79, Miomir Kecmanovic +2.59, Roberto Bautista Agut +2.40, Nishesh Basavareddy +2.38, Casper Ruud +2.38

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +2.38, Fabian Marozsan +2.22, Arthur Rinderknech +2.21, Pedro Martinez +2.20, Roberto Bautista Agut +2.19

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Sebastian Baez, Jaume Munar, Miomir Kecmanovic, Jan Lennard Struff, Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length5.1
FH down the line38%
Wide serves · ad61%
1st serve in65%
Run-around forehands28%
Deep returns32%
Forehand share56%
Wide serves · deuce46%
Drop shots / shot1.8%
Points at net9%
Through the middle23%
Serve & volley1%
T serves · deuce42%
Backhand slice12%
Chipped returns8%
BH down the line15%
Point-ending shots14.7%
Unforced errors / shot5.5%
T serves · ad25%

Plays most like

  1. Roberto Bautista Agut 2013–2026 plan v
  2. Mikhail Kukushkin 2014–2022 plan v
  3. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005 plan v
  4. Pablo Andujar 2013–2023 plan v
  5. Mariano Navone 2022–2026 plan v
  6. Bernabe Zapata Miralles 2019–2024 plan v
  7. Jaume Munar 2018–2026 plan v
  8. Pedro Martinez 2019–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005
  2. Sergi Bruguera 1990–1997
  3. Albert Costa 1996–2002

Charted matches