Olympics · R64 · Clay · 28 Jul 2024
Sebastian Ofner v Robin Haase
71–58 in points · Sebastian Ofner won
Why it went the way it did
Sebastian Ofner won 7.7 more points than Robin Haase relative to what the serve alone predicted. Robin Haase's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.5, net execution −1.6, return execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sebastian Ofner | Robin Haase | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.3 | −2.6 | −2.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.3 | +1.9 | +3.7 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.2 | +1.1 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.4 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −2.5 | −0.4 | −2.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.6 | −1.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +1.2 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +2.2 | +0.4 | −1.9 | −4.0 | −5.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Sebastian Ofner | Robin Haase | Net, Sebastian | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +1.3 | |
| 2 | +1.0 | −5.4 | +6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sebastian Ofner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 53% | 5% 100% | 53% 67% |
| 2 | 38% 75% | 14% 67% | 48% 80% |
Set to set +0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Robin Haase serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 40% | 9% 33% | 47% 81% |
| 2 | 27% 56% | 3% 0% | 70% 52% |
Set to set +4.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.97 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sebastian Ofner
3.8 points left on the table across 164 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.92 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Robin Haase
4.0 points left on the table across 146 shots 2.71 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH drop shot crosscourt + approach ×1; FH drop shot down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts