RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2022–2025

Sebastian Ofner

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.8% ±3.5 raw 59.5% · tour 63.4% · 608 points
Return points won 37.3% ±3.5 raw 34.8% · tour 36.6% · 612 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.19 ±0.11 better than 94% of ATP · raw +0.19
Shot selection +0.10 ±0.16 better than 65% of ATP · raw +0.10
Execution −1.43 ±0.81 better than 12% of ATP · raw −1.48
Points left on the table 2.44 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 69% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,168 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Sebastian Ofner goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 185 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 51% 48.7%±7.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 14% 38.6%±11.8 43.7%
BH down the line 11% 42.1%±12.7 46.4%
FH inside-in 6% 59.2%±14.3 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 6% 29.1%±13.4 35.1%
FH inside-out 6% 52.8%±14.7 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 38.3%±14.6 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 159 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 49% 43.2%±8.2 46.6%
FH down the line 36% 37.6%±9.1 44.7%
FH through the middle 15% 34.8%±11.8 41.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 133 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 33% 43.0%±10.2 52.7%
FH down the line 26% 46.8%±11.2 51.5%
BH crosscourt 22% 50.7%±11.7 49.1%
BH through the middle 8% 52.8%±14.7 46.8%
FH through the middle 8% 41.3%±14.8 47.0%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 86 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 38% 51.3%±11.3 56.0%
BH crosscourt 22% 45.9%±13.1 49.5%
FH down the line 21% 57.1%±13.2 53.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Sebastian Ofner's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 69 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 44% 70% / 73%
Body 8% 0% 58% / 63%
T 46% 56% ▲ 71% / 75%

297 normal · 18 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 51% 68% / 73%
Body 4% 6% 70% / 63%
T 42% 43% 68% / 72%

242 normal · 51 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 60.1%±6.1 n=146 59% ▲
Body7% 61.6%±11.0 n=23 0% ▼
T46% 58.7%±6.1 n=146 41% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 58.9%±5.9 n=157 45% ▼
Body4% 61.2%±12.2 n=13 0% ▼
T42% 59.5%±6.5 n=123 55% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.82).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.25 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.0±2.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (252 repeats, 338 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 14 43% +6.4±12.3
1stAd courtT 86 33% +5.1±7.2
1stAd courtWide 79 26% −1.4±6.9
1stDeuce courtBody 11 37% −0.1±12.4
1stDeuce courtT 93 26% +1.4±6.5
1stDeuce courtWide 105 23% −4.1±6.0
2ndAd courtBody 29 52% +2.8±10.7
2ndAd courtT 18 45% −3.9±11.8
2ndAd courtWide 62 45% −3.2±8.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 32 43% −5.9±10.3
2ndDeuce courtT 48 49% −1.1±9.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 35 50% +1.8±10.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Sebastian Ofner's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 10.7% · won 62% · −1.1±9.3 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.2% · won 50% · −13.2±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 7.8% · won 46% · −16.5±10.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 11.4% · won 42% · +9.1±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 8.9% · won 35% · +2.3±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 8.5% · won 22% · −11.1±10.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 10.5% · won 53% · +6.0±9.5 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 8.2% · won 48% · +0.8±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 9.7% · won 46% · −0.4±9.7 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 13.0% · won 46% · −0.5±8.8 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 5.7% · won 45% · −1.5±11.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Sebastian Ofner wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 52% · +4.5±12.1 vs own baseline · +4.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Dominic Thiem (3/7)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 51% · +3.4±12.3 vs own baseline · +6.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Dominic Thiem (6/11)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 48% · +1.1±12.6 vs own baseline · +1.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Dominic Thiem (4/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 48% · +0.3±9.7 vs own baseline · −1.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Casper Ruud (2/8), Dominic Thiem (12/22)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 47% · ±0.0±12.4 vs own baseline · −4.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Dominic Thiem (7/16)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 46% · −1.6±10.3 vs own baseline · −3.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+0.8255
FH to their forehand · serve +1+0.2128
T 1st serve · ad court−0.6123
BH to their backhand · rally−0.7237
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.8146

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−2.7194
BH to the middle · return−1.8126
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.6149
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.1134
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.1159

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Deep returns35%
Unforced errors / shot12.5%
Forehand share56%
Wide serves · ad54%
Wide serves · deuce46%
T serves · ad42%
Point-ending shots26.0%
FH down the line31%
T serves · deuce46%
Avg rally length4.0
Drop shots / shot1.4%
Run-around forehands17%
Serve & volley2%
BH down the line17%
Backhand slice12%
Points at net7%
1st serve in58%
Chipped returns5%
Through the middle16%

Plays most like

  1. Marin Cilic 2009–2026 plan v
  2. Sebastian Korda 2021–2026 plan v
  3. David Goffin 2013–2025 plan v
  4. Borna Coric 2015–2025 plan v
  5. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  6. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
  7. Tommy Paul 2016–2026 plan v
  8. Rafael Jodar 2025–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Robin Soderling 2004–2011
  2. Marat Safin 1998–2009
  3. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002

Charted matches