Olympics · R32 · Clay · 30 Jul 2024
Sebastian Ofner v Daniil Medvedev
41–63 in points · Daniil Medvedev won
Why it went the way it did
Daniil Medvedev won 12.4 more points than Sebastian Ofner relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sebastian Ofner's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.1, touch execution −1.8, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sebastian Ofner | Daniil Medvedev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | +2.0 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.0 | −3.1 | −0.6 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.9 | +3.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +0.7 | −0.7 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.8 | −0.7 | −2.3 | −0.2 | −1.0 | +0.5 | −0.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Touch | +0.2 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +1.2 | −4.9 | −3.2 | +0.8 | −1.5 | +9.9 | +9.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Sebastian Ofner | Daniil Medvedev | Net, Sebastian | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.2 | +2.0 | −5.2 | |
| 2 | ±0.0 | +7.2 | −7.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sebastian Ofner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 50% | 9% 50% | 48% 55% |
| 2 | 51% 61% | 11% 50% | 37% 31% |
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniil Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 73% | 14% 67% | 33% 86% |
| 2 | 36% 89% | 8% 50% | 56% 64% |
Within sets +2.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sebastian Ofner
5.6 points left on the table across 204 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Daniil Medvedev
4.0 points left on the table across 199 shots 2.02 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts