Winston Salem · SF · Hard · 23 Aug 2024
Lorenzo Sonego v David Goffin
59–42 in points · Lorenzo Sonego won
Why it went the way it did
Lorenzo Sonego won 8.3 more points than David Goffin relative to what the serve alone predicted. David Goffin's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, serve 1st execution −1.3, forehand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lorenzo Sonego | David Goffin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.3 | +2.4 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +2.5 | +2.8 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +2.5 | +2.3 | +5.7 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.8 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −3.7 | +0.7 | −2.8 | −0.2 | −2.3 | −0.5 | −2.9 |
| Net | −0.5 | +0.2 | +1.9 | +1.6 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.0 | −0.6 | +7.0 | +7.4 | +0.6 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Lorenzo Sonego | David Goffin | Net, Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | −0.8 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | +5.2 | −0.1 | +5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lorenzo Sonego serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 82% | 4% 100% | 33% 56% |
| 2 | 63% 73% | – | 38% 67% |
Set to set −0.91 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
David Goffin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 71% | – | 42% 50% |
| 2 | 62% 69% | 4% 0% | 35% 22% |
Within sets −0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lorenzo Sonego
4.9 points left on the table across 176 shots 2.79 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH down the line ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
David Goffin
4.6 points left on the table across 172 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts