Campinas CH · QF · Clay · 18 Oct 2024
Tomas Barrios Vera v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
38–62 in points · Camilo Ugo Carabelli won
Why it went the way it did
Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 12.2 more points than Tomas Barrios Vera relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tomas Barrios Vera's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.1, serve 1st execution −2.4, backhand execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tomas Barrios Vera | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.4 | −2.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.9 | −7.1 | −6.1 | −0.7 | +1.6 | +1.8 | +2.8 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.8 | −2.0 | −3.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −7.2 | +2.8 | −4.2 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.4 | −1.8 | −1.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.9 | −1.6 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +1.0 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +0.4 | −16.3 | −15.5 | −0.8 | −4.8 | +2.3 | −3.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Tomas Barrios Vera | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Net, Tomas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.8 | −2.4 | −5.5 | |
| 2 | −7.7 | −0.9 | −6.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tomas Barrios Vera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 50% | 29% 50% | 36% 10% |
| 2 | 48% 27% | 22% 40% | 30% 43% |
Within sets −0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Camilo Ugo Carabelli serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 78% | 21% 20% | 42% 50% |
| 2 | 40% 80% | 24% 33% | 36% 67% |
Within sets −0.82 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tomas Barrios Vera
5.2 points left on the table across 229 shots 2.27 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
6.7 points left on the table across 218 shots 3.09 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts