RallyIQ

Basel · R32 · Hard · 21 Oct 2024

James Duckworth v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

60–73 in points · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won

Why it went the way it did

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won 6.9 more points than James Duckworth relative to what the serve alone predicted. James Duckworth's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.0, backhand execution −0.9, net execution −0.7.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotJames DuckworthGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.1 ±0.0 +1.9 +2.0 +0.2 +0.2 +7.0 +7.4
Serve 2nd −0.1 ±0.0 +1.4 +1.3 ±0.0 +0.3 +3.6 +3.8
Return −0.3 ±0.0 +2.0 +1.7 −0.2 −1.1 +2.6 +1.3
Forehand +0.1 +0.7 +3.0 +3.9 −0.4 +1.6 +1.0 +2.2
Backhand +0.1 +0.1 −0.9 −0.8 ±0.0 +0.3 −0.1 +0.2
Slice −0.1 −2.0 +0.7 −1.4 +0.1 −2.2 +1.2 −0.9
Net +0.1 +0.1 −0.7 −0.5 −0.6 −0.3 +0.1 −0.7
Touch +0.1 −0.3 +0.7 +0.4 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.5 +0.5
Other ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.1 −0.3 +0.2 −0.2
All shots ±0.0−1.4 +8.1+6.7 −1.0−1.4 +16.0+13.6

Set by set

SetJames DuckworthGiovanni Mpetshi PerricardNet, James
1+7.1+9.7 −2.6
2−0.4+3.9 −4.3

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

James Duckworth serving

SetWideBodyT
1 44% 67% 5% 50% 51% 71%
2 33% 78% 7% 0% 59% 56%

Set to set +0.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving

SetWideBodyT
1 49% 72% 3% 0% 49% 83%
2 43% 92% 4% 0% 54% 67%

Set to set +0.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

James Duckworth

3.4 points left on the table across 133 shots 2.52 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
  2. Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
  4. Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

5.0 points left on the table across 145 shots 3.43 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
  3. Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
  4. Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH inside-out + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts