Guayaquil CH · QF · Clay · 1 Nov 2024
Federico Agustin Gomez v Alex Barrena
57–38 in points · Federico Agustin Gomez won
Why it went the way it did
Federico Agustin Gomez won 10.3 more points than Alex Barrena relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alex Barrena's biggest leaks: return execution −3.8, slice shot selection −2.0, backhand execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Federico Agustin Gomez | Alex Barrena | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.5 | −2.2 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −3.8 | −4.0 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +2.6 | +0.2 | +3.5 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.5 | +2.0 | +2.7 | +0.2 | +1.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −0.4 | −2.3 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.2 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −1.1 | −0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +3.5 | −0.2 | +4.3 | +0.5 | +0.5 | −7.0 | −6.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Federico Agustin Gomez | Alex Barrena | Net, Federico | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.1 | −2.1 | +5.2 | |
| 2 | +1.2 | −3.9 | +5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Federico Agustin Gomez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 82% | 12% 33% | 20% 100% |
| 2 | 58% 82% | 16% 67% | 26% 100% |
Within sets +1.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alex Barrena serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 65% | 19% 40% | 19% 60% |
| 2 | 54% 62% | 21% 20% | 25% 83% |
Within sets −0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Federico Agustin Gomez
3.1 points left on the table across 163 shots 1.89 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Alex Barrena
3.4 points left on the table across 154 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts