Davis Cup Finals · RR · Hard · 21 Nov 2024
Ben Shelton v Thanasi Kokkinakis
98–109 in points · Thanasi Kokkinakis won
Why it went the way it did
Thanasi Kokkinakis won 7.1 more points than Ben Shelton relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ben Shelton's biggest leaks: return execution −4.4, backhand execution −2.2, net execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ben Shelton | Thanasi Kokkinakis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.6 | +0.3 | +4.7 | +4.5 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +3.0 | +3.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Return | −0.9 | −0.5 | −4.4 | −5.9 | −0.1 | +0.9 | −4.2 | −3.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.2 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +1.2 | −4.2 | −3.2 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −2.4 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.9 | −1.5 | −3.6 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −0.8 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −1.8 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.7 | −1.3 | −8.4 | −11.4 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −5.3 | −4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Ben Shelton | Thanasi Kokkinakis | Net, Ben | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.7 | +1.9 | −6.6 | |
| 2 | −1.5 | −2.3 | +0.8 | |
| 3 | −5.2 | −3.9 | −1.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ben Shelton serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 57% | 10% 0% | 55% 36% |
| 2 | 45% 53% | 24% 100% | 32% 58% |
| 3 | 54% 79% | 21% 55% | 25% 85% |
Set to set +0.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Thanasi Kokkinakis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 75% | 13% 50% | 38% 83% |
| 2 | 66% 68% | 7% 50% | 28% 63% |
| 3 | 47% 70% | 2% 100% | 51% 84% |
Set to set +0.98 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ben Shelton
9.1 points left on the table across 231 shots 3.92 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts
Thanasi Kokkinakis
5.1 points left on the table across 224 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts