RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 44 charted matches · 2021–2026

Ben Shelton

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 66.9% ±2.5 raw 65.5% · tour 63.4% · 4,153 points
Return points won 34.3% ±2.6 raw 31.9% · tour 36.6% · 4,005 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.37 ±0.06 better than 3% of ATP · raw −0.37
Shot selection +0.04 ±0.16 better than 57% of ATP · raw +0.04
Execution −0.67 ±0.48 better than 38% of ATP · raw −0.69
Tactical adaptability +0.04 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 42 matches
Adaptation speed −0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.64 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 7% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 19,042 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Ben Shelton goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,005 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 26% 42.5%±4.9 43.7%
BH crosscourt 23% 39.3%±5.1 47.6%
BH down the line 13% 41.0%±6.7 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 10% 26.6%±6.5 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 36.3%±8.1 42.5%
BH slice down the line 6% 39.5%±8.9 37.1%
FH inside-out 5% 50.5%±9.6 51.8%
FH inside-in 4% 45.9%±10.3 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 913 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 25% 48.0%±5.3 52.7%
FH down the line 20% 48.1%±5.8 51.5%
FH through the middle 18% 43.1%±6.0 47.0%
BH through the middle 12% 47.2%±7.2 46.8%
BH crosscourt 9% 47.8%±8.3 49.1%
BH slice through the middle 4% 43.0%±10.7 44.8%
BH slice down the line 3% 43.1%±11.6 45.6%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 39.5%±12.1 47.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 751 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 42.8%±4.4 46.6%
FH through the middle 23% 38.3%±5.8 41.5%
FH down the line 20% 35.3%±6.0 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 4% 22.7%±10.0 24.5%
BH inside-out 3% 36.1%±12.7 45.4%
BH through the middle 2% 43.7%±13.2 43.1%
BH inside-in 2% 46.7%±13.9 46.7%
FH slice down the line 2% 19.1%±11.4 25.6%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 594 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 32% 41.7%±5.6 43.0%
BH crosscourt 19% 41.2%±7.0 46.9%
BH slice through the middle 17% 31.8%±7.0 32.6%
BH down the line 9% 36.8%±9.3 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 43.7%±9.8 40.9%
BH slice down the line 5% 34.0%±10.8 33.3%
FH inside-out 4% 46.0%±12.7 51.7%
FH inside-in 3% 46.6%±13.3 53.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Ben Shelton's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 320 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 49% 72% / 73%
Body 14% 12% 62% / 63%
T 40% 39% 72% / 75%

2,096 normal · 74 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 50% 74% / 73%
Body 14% 17% 71% / 63%
T 35% 33% 80% / 72%

1,734 normal · 246 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 64.2%±2.5 n=1,001 46%
Body14% 57.4%±4.4 n=307 1% ▼
T40% 65.0%±2.6 n=862 53% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.022): serve T more. Gap 1.5 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.0 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 67.3%±2.4 n=1,005 51%
Body14% 67.6%±4.4 n=280 1% ▼
T35% 68.1%±2.8 n=695 48% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.95).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.71 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.2±2.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,539 repeats, 2,523 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 127 36% −0.6±6.3
1stAd courtT 548 26% −2.0±3.0
1stAd courtWide 524 23% −3.9±3.0
1stDeuce courtBody 127 39% +2.1±6.4
1stDeuce courtT 550 23% −2.4±2.9
1stDeuce courtWide 668 25% −2.5±2.7
2ndAd courtBody 190 46% −3.6±5.5
2ndAd courtT 312 44% −4.9±4.4
2ndAd courtWide 200 38% −9.9±5.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 187 47% −2.1±5.6
2ndDeuce courtT 159 45% −4.8±6.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 406 43% −4.6±3.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Ben Shelton's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.2% · won 68% · −3.2±6.4 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 58% · −13.7±8.0 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 60% · −11.2±6.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.1% · won 59% · −12.6±6.1 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 57% · −15.0±6.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.4% · won 46% · +12.4±6.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 4.3% · won 46% · +11.7±6.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.6% · won 42% · +8.1±6.8 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.3% · won 43% · +9.0±8.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.4% · won 42% · +7.9±7.9 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 52% · +9.4±7.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 48% · +5.5±6.0 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 49% · +6.1±8.0 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 48% · +5.6±8.2 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 49% · +6.4±9.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Ben Shelton wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 58% · +13.5±11.3 vs own baseline · +13.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 56% · +11.3±11.1 vs own baseline · +14.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. T serve → BH through the middle return, deep → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 57% · +12.3±12.0 vs own baseline · +21.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 50% · +5.7±8.4 vs own baseline · −0.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jannik Sinner (8/20), Gael Monfils (3/6)
  5. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 50% · +5.2±7.8 vs own baseline · −2.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jannik Sinner (6/14), Gael Monfils (7/11)
  6. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 55% · +10.1±12.1 vs own baseline · +17.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · ad court+3.0673
Wide 1st serve · ad court+2.7984
FH slice to the middle · return+2.2122
Wide 2nd serve · deuce court+1.7187
FH to their backhand · return+1.7219

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · return +1−2.9220
FH to their forehand · return +1−2.3204
T 2nd serve · deuce court−1.9151
BH to the middle · rally−1.7627
FH to their backhand · return +1−1.7300

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.66, Jack Draper +1.28, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.22, Roberto Bautista Agut +1.01, Pedro Martinez +1.01

Favourable matchups

Fabian Marozsan +0.56, Pedro Martinez +0.45, Miomir Kecmanovic +0.42, Roberto Bautista Agut +0.33, Alexander Shevchenko +0.30

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Adrian Mannarino, Yoshihito Nishioka, Learner Tien, Casper Ruud

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in66%
Deep returns35%
Through the middle29%
Forehand share58%
Backhand slice33%
Unforced errors / shot11.6%
Drop shots / shot2.2%
Wide serves · deuce46%
Point-ending shots26.0%
Run-around forehands22%
Points at net13%
Wide serves · ad51%
Chipped returns16%
Serve & volley9%
Avg rally length3.7
BH down the line18%
T serves · ad35%
FH down the line28%
T serves · deuce40%

Plays most like

  1. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  2. Jiri Lehecka 2019–2026 plan v
  3. Tallon Griekspoor 2018–2026 plan v
  4. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v
  5. Gabriel Diallo 2024–2025 plan v
  6. Dusan Lajovic 2014–2025 plan v
  7. Nuno Borges 2021–2026 plan v
  8. Arthur Rinderknech 2021–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  2. Ivan Ljubicic 2003–2011
  3. Mario Ancic 2002–2008

Charted matches