Brisbane · R32 · Hard · 30 Dec 2024
Matteo Arnaldi v Alexei Popyrin
55–40 in points · Matteo Arnaldi won
Why it went the way it did
Matteo Arnaldi won 5.6 more points than Alexei Popyrin relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexei Popyrin's biggest leaks: return execution −2.6, slice shot selection −1.1, slice execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Matteo Arnaldi | Alexei Popyrin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.8 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −2.6 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.6 | +1.9 | +3.6 | +0.2 | +1.2 | −0.5 | +1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.6 | +1.3 | +1.7 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −0.5 | +0.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.6 | +2.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +2.1 | +2.0 | +4.1 | +0.3 | +1.2 | −3.0 | −1.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Matteo Arnaldi | Alexei Popyrin | Net, Matteo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.3 | +0.1 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −1.6 | +3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Matteo Arnaldi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 80% | 7% 100% | 43% 62% |
| 2 | 63% 60% | 4% 0% | 33% 88% |
Set to set +3.19 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.84 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexei Popyrin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 64% | 14% 33% | 33% 86% |
| 2 | 20% 50% | 5% 0% | 75% 53% |
Within sets −2.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Matteo Arnaldi
3.0 points left on the table across 113 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Alexei Popyrin
2.8 points left on the table across 122 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts