RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 34 charted matches · 2019–2026

Alexei Popyrin

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.5% ±2.6 raw 63.9% · tour 63.4% · 2,821 points
Return points won 35.3% ±2.7 raw 33.5% · tour 36.6% · 2,869 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.04 ±0.06 better than 69% of ATP · raw +0.04
Shot selection +0.29 ±0.15 better than 79% of ATP · raw +0.29
Execution −0.73 ±0.59 better than 36% of ATP · raw −0.74
Tactical adaptability +0.17 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 34 matches
Adaptation speed +0.12 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.71 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 39% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 13,077 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Alexei Popyrin goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 783 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 28% 44.7%±5.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 38.1%±5.7 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 12% 42.9%±7.7 42.5%
BH down the line 10% 35.6%±7.9 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 10% 33.4%±7.9 35.1%
FH inside-out 9% 50.4%±8.5 51.8%
FH inside-in 3% 58.5%±11.9 54.7%
BH slice down the line 3% 38.7%±11.9 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 512 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 47% 36.6%±4.9 46.6%
FH through the middle 20% 40.4%±7.3 41.5%
FH down the line 19% 39.3%±7.4 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 7% 17.1%±8.1 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 27.3%±13.4 30.9%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 469 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 23% 46.5%±7.2 46.9%
BH through the middle 22% 40.5%±7.2 43.0%
BH slice crosscourt 21% 34.0%±7.2 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 11% 26.7%±8.5 32.6%
BH down the line 9% 36.4%±10.2 44.2%
FH inside-out 6% 45.6%±11.7 51.7%
BH slice down the line 3% 35.2%±13.1 33.3%
FH inside-in 3% 47.6%±14.3 53.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 469 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 47.2%±6.9 52.7%
FH down the line 26% 52.0%±6.9 51.5%
FH through the middle 16% 43.0%±8.4 47.0%
BH through the middle 9% 50.6%±10.6 46.8%
BH crosscourt 7% 59.3%±11.2 49.1%
FH down the line + approach 5% 63.0%±12.1 70.5%
BH down the line 4% 45.3%±13.1 48.3%
BH slice through the middle 3% 46.9%±14.1 44.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Alexei Popyrin's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 246 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 47% 73% / 73%
Body 9% 12% 62% / 63%
T 45% 41% 78% / 75%

1,410 normal · 58 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 54% 76% / 73%
Body 6% 4% 63% / 63%
T 43% 43% 74% / 72%

1,155 normal · 188 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 64.0%±3.0 n=667 42% ▼
Body9% 57.8%±6.3 n=138 0% ▼
T45% 64.9%±3.0 n=663 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.15).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 64.8%±2.9 n=698 65% ▲
Body5% 61.9%±7.9 n=71 0% ▼
T43% 63.6%±3.2 n=574 35% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.76).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.45 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.1±3.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,177 repeats, 1,566 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 69 31% −5.6±7.7
1stAd courtT 344 27% −1.5±3.8
1stAd courtWide 430 26% −1.5±3.4
1stDeuce courtBody 99 36% −0.3±7.0
1stDeuce courtT 401 25% +0.3±3.4
1stDeuce courtWide 410 27% −0.1±3.5
2ndAd courtBody 154 46% −3.8±6.0
2ndAd courtT 104 48% −1.7±7.1
2ndAd courtWide 275 41% −7.2±4.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 215 42% −7.1±5.2
2ndDeuce courtT 257 48% −2.0±4.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 104 48% ±0.0±7.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alexei Popyrin's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 64% · −4.4±7.7 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 64% · −4.5±7.4 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line + approach used 2.1% · won 58% · −10.4±9.0 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 59% · −9.3±8.1 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 58% · −10.3±8.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.5% · won 49% · +13.3±9.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.1% · won 50% · +13.9±9.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 2.4% · won 47% · +11.3±9.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH down the line, mid used 2.1% · won 42% · +6.8±9.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.7% · won 40% · +4.7±8.9 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 48% · +5.7±7.3 vs own baseline
  2. BH slice crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.9% · won 51% · +8.7±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 51% · +9.0±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 50% · +8.0±11.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 50% · +7.1±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alexei Popyrin wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 53% · +8.0±9.4 vs own baseline · +3.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (1/7), Novak Djokovic (5/9)
  2. BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 55% · +10.1±12.3 vs own baseline · +23.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 54% · +8.9±12.2 vs own baseline · +13.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out → BH through the middle used 0.3% · won 54% · +9.1±12.5 vs own baseline · +24.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 54% · +9.1±12.5 vs own baseline · +15.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 0.4% · won 51% · +6.5±11.5 vs own baseline · +14.5 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · return+3.5224
FH to their forehand · rally+2.3717
FH to their forehand · serve +1+1.5553
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.1667
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.0698

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · return +1−4.0182
FH to the middle · return +1−2.7157
FH to the middle · rally−2.4338
FH to their forehand · return−1.9193
FH to their forehand · serve +1−1.8427

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.94, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.79, Jack Draper +1.66, Nishesh Basavareddy +1.50, Casper Ruud +1.49

Favourable matchups

Fabian Marozsan +1.08, Miomir Kecmanovic +0.93, Pedro Martinez +0.86, Roberto Bautista Agut +0.71, Roberto Carballes Baena +0.68

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Jesper De Jong, Lorenzo Musetti, Sebastian Baez, Nishesh Basavareddy, Cameron Norrie

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Forehand share58%
Backhand slice33%
Point-ending shots27.5%
BH down the line24%
Run-around forehands25%
Unforced errors / shot11.4%
Deep returns31%
T serves · ad43%
Wide serves · deuce45%
Wide serves · ad52%
1st serve in62%
Points at net12%
T serves · deuce45%
Serve & volley5%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
Through the middle24%
Chipped returns13%
FH down the line29%
Avg rally length3.6

Plays most like

  1. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v
  2. Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2007–2022 plan v
  3. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  4. Lucas Pouille 2015–2024 plan v
  5. Hubert Hurkacz 2018–2026 plan v
  6. Joao Fonseca 2024–2026 plan v
  7. Stefanos Tsitsipas 2016–2026 plan v
  8. Lloyd Harris 2019–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Robin Soderling 2004–2011
  2. James Blake 2002–2011
  3. Ivan Ljubicic 2003–2011

Charted matches