Brisbane · R16 · Hard · 1 Jan 2025
Grigor Dimitrov v Aleksandar Vukic
72–55 in points · Grigor Dimitrov won
Why it went the way it did
Grigor Dimitrov won 11.6 more points than Aleksandar Vukic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Aleksandar Vukic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.1, slice execution −2.2, slice shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Grigor Dimitrov | Aleksandar Vukic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +5.9 | +6.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +2.1 | +2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.3 | −2.3 | +4.6 | +2.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +2.7 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −4.1 | −3.1 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.2 | −1.4 | −4.7 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −2.2 | −4.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −4.1 | +10.0 | +6.0 | +0.5 | −1.4 | −4.7 | −5.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Grigor Dimitrov | Aleksandar Vukic | Net, Grigor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.3 | −5.2 | +8.5 | |
| 2 | +2.7 | −0.5 | +3.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Grigor Dimitrov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 89% | – | 47% 100% |
| 2 | 50% 83% | – | 50% 72% |
Within sets −0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Aleksandar Vukic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 36% | – | 59% 63% |
| 2 | 51% 63% | – | 49% 74% |
Within sets +0.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Grigor Dimitrov
4.3 points left on the table across 148 shots 2.89 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Aleksandar Vukic
3.1 points left on the table across 134 shots 2.32 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.13 pts