Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 15 Jan 2025
Kei Nishikori v Tommy Paul
97–136 in points · Tommy Paul won
Why it went the way it did
Tommy Paul won 23.2 more points than Kei Nishikori relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kei Nishikori's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.9, forehand execution −2.2, serve 1st execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kei Nishikori | Tommy Paul | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.0 | −0.2 | −1.7 | −2.9 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +2.1 | +1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.7 | +3.3 | +4.1 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +11.1 | +12.3 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.2 | −2.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +2.6 | +0.8 | +3.6 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −1.0 | +5.3 | +4.7 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +6.5 | +7.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −3.9 | −1.5 | −5.4 | −0.4 | −2.4 | −0.7 | −3.5 |
| Net | −0.2 | +1.6 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +1.5 | +0.4 | +1.6 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −1.5 | +1.2 | −0.7 | −0.6 | +2.6 | +20.5 | +22.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Kei Nishikori | Tommy Paul | Net, Kei | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.6 | +6.1 | −0.5 | |
| 2 | −0.8 | +7.4 | −8.3 | |
| 3 | −1.9 | +5.6 | −7.5 | |
| 4 | −3.5 | +3.4 | −6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kei Nishikori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 58% | 28% 53% | 36% 58% |
| 2 | 57% 33% | 24% 0% | 19% 75% |
| 3 | 39% 38% | 9% 0% | 52% 47% |
| 4 | 45% 40% | 32% 57% | 23% 20% |
Set to set +0.43 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 54% | 13% 50% | 35% 63% |
| 2 | 50% 63% | 13% 100% | 38% 83% |
| 3 | 38% 80% | 12% 33% | 50% 54% |
| 4 | 38% 67% | 38% 83% | 25% 75% |
Set to set +0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kei Nishikori
12.3 points left on the table across 456 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
Tommy Paul
12.3 points left on the table across 471 shots 2.61 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts