Australian Open · R16 · Hard · 20 Jan 2025
Ben Shelton v Gael Monfils
127–117 in points · Ben Shelton won
Why it went the way it did
Ben Shelton won 5.6 more points than Gael Monfils relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gael Monfils's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.4, serve 2nd execution −2.8, return shot selection −2.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ben Shelton | Gael Monfils | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.8 | −2.6 |
| Return | −1.0 | −1.9 | +2.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −2.5 | −2.0 | −5.0 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +5.2 | −1.5 | +4.7 | −1.0 | +1.1 | +3.5 | +3.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.0 | −1.4 | +0.7 | +5.7 | +4.9 |
| Slice | −1.0 | −3.0 | +1.6 | −2.4 | +0.1 | −3.4 | −0.4 | −3.6 |
| Net | +1.2 | +0.6 | −2.3 | −0.5 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.7 | −3.7 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −1.2 | +0.7 | −1.3 | −2.0 | −5.7 | +0.9 | −6.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Ben Shelton | Gael Monfils | Net, Ben | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.8 | −5.5 | +2.6 | |
| 2 | −2.6 | −1.8 | −0.8 | |
| 3 | +4.0 | +3.2 | +0.8 | |
| 4 | +0.2 | −2.8 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ben Shelton serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 71% | 22% 63% | 39% 93% |
| 2 | 33% 85% | 15% 67% | 51% 60% |
| 3 | 40% 71% | 14% 83% | 45% 63% |
| 4 | 33% 100% | 33% 100% | 33% 100% |
Set to set +1.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.91 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Gael Monfils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 73% | 5% 50% | 35% 69% |
| 2 | 49% 70% | – | 51% 71% |
| 3 | 38% 85% | 9% 33% | 53% 61% |
| 4 | 67% 50% | – | 33% 0% |
Set to set +0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ben Shelton
14.2 points left on the table across 439 shots 3.23 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
Gael Monfils
12.9 points left on the table across 434 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts