RallyIQ

Australian Open · SF · Hard · 24 Jan 2025

Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev

43–49 in points · result not charted to completion

Why it went the way it did

Alexander Zverev won 5.4 more points than Novak Djokovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Novak Djokovic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.7, net execution −2.3.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotNovak DjokovicAlexander Zverev
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.3 ±0.0 +1.8 +2.1 +0.2 −0.1 +3.0 +3.1
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 +1.5 +1.5 ±0.0 ±0.0 +1.2 +1.1
Return +0.1 −0.4 +2.0 +1.7 ±0.0 +0.3 +3.1 +3.4
Forehand ±0.0 +1.1 +1.9 +3.0 +0.6 +1.2 +2.4 +4.2
Backhand +0.1 +0.3 +3.1 +3.5 +0.3 +0.4 +3.8 +4.5
Slice +0.2 −3.7 +2.2 −1.3 +0.1 −1.9 −1.5 −3.3
Net +0.1 −0.1 −2.3 −2.3 +0.2 +0.5 −0.4 +0.4
Touch +0.1 −0.1 −0.4 −0.4 −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 −0.3
All shots +0.9−3.0 +9.8+7.7 +1.2+0.4 +11.4+13.1

Set by set

SetNovak DjokovicAlexander ZverevNet, Novak
1+7.7+13.1 −5.4

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Novak Djokovic

4.6 points left on the table across 216 shots 2.13 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts

Alexander Zverev

4.0 points left on the table across 229 shots 1.76 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
  3. Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
  4. Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts