RallyIQ

Montpellier · QF · Hard · 31 Jan 2025

Nikoloz Basilashvili v Andrey Rublev

15–24 in points · result not charted to completion

Why it went the way it did

Andrey Rublev won 4.9 more points than Nikoloz Basilashvili relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nikoloz Basilashvili's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.2, return execution −1.5.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotNikoloz BasilashviliAndrey Rublev
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.3 +0.3 +0.1 ±0.0 +2.0 +2.1
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 +1.4 +1.3 ±0.0 ±0.0 +1.3 +1.2
Return −0.1 −0.1 −1.5 −1.6 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.7 +0.7
Forehand +0.1 +0.1 +1.1 +1.2 −0.1 ±0.0 +0.9 +0.8
Backhand +0.1 −0.1 −2.2 −2.1 ±0.0 +0.1 −0.6 −0.5
Slice ±0.0 −0.1 +0.1 ±0.0 +0.1 −0.4 ±0.0 −0.3
All shots +0.2−0.3 −0.8−0.9 +0.1−0.3 +4.2+4.0

Set by set

SetNikoloz BasilashviliAndrey RublevNet, Nikoloz
1−0.9+4.0 −4.9

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

0.6 points left on the table across 37 shots 1.75 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
  2. Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.09 pts
  3. Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
  4. Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.05 pts

Andrey Rublev

0.6 points left on the table across 35 shots 1.80 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
  2. Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.06 pts
  3. Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.06 pts
  4. Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.06 pts