Rotterdam · R32 · Hard · 3 Feb 2025
Mattia Bellucci v Mees Rottgering
74–55 in points · Mattia Bellucci won
Why it went the way it did
Mattia Bellucci won 10.8 more points than Mees Rottgering relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mees Rottgering's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.0, forehand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mattia Bellucci | Mees Rottgering | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +0.9 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −3.0 | −3.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.8 | +0.7 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −0.2 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.5 | +4.7 | +6.0 | −0.6 | +1.6 | −2.9 | −1.8 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.5 | −2.4 | −2.2 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +1.9 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.9 | +0.6 | −2.1 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −2.0 | −4.3 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −1.4 | −1.5 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −1.2 |
| All shots | −1.6 | −2.2 | +3.6 | −0.2 | −1.6 | −0.5 | −8.9 | −11.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Mattia Bellucci | Mees Rottgering | Net, Mattia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.2 | −7.4 | +4.2 | |
| 2 | +3.0 | −3.6 | +6.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mattia Bellucci serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 60% | 31% 73% | 26% 56% |
| 2 | 50% 75% | 4% 100% | 46% 73% |
Set to set −0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.97 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mees Rottgering serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 43% | 15% 50% | 33% 69% |
| 2 | 43% 58% | 43% 42% | 14% 50% |
Set to set +0.61 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mattia Bellucci
8.7 points left on the table across 302 shots 2.89 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH slice through the middle ×9; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
Mees Rottgering
8.6 points left on the table across 301 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts