RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 10 charted matches · 2022–2025

Mattia Bellucci

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.9% ±3.5 raw 63.6% · tour 63.4% · 751 points
Return points won 36.7% ±3.6 raw 34.3% · tour 36.6% · 705 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.19 ±0.10 better than 15% of ATP · raw −0.19
Shot selection −0.43 ±0.21 better than 15% of ATP · raw −0.43
Execution −0.76 ±0.76 better than 34% of ATP · raw −0.65
Tactical adaptability +0.08 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed +0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.20 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 12% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,743 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Mattia Bellucci goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 246 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 51.3%±7.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 52.9%±8.4 43.7%
BH down the line 14% 42.3%±11.0 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 8% 33.4%±12.4 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 169 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 36% 46.6%±9.2 46.6%
FH through the middle 23% 44.6%±10.6 41.5%
FH down the line 18% 35.2%±11.0 44.7%
FH slice crosscourt 11% 33.8%±12.5 30.9%
FH slice through the middle 9% 39.7%±13.6 24.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 160 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 24% 43.0%±10.6 46.8%
FH crosscourt 24% 54.4%±10.8 52.7%
BH crosscourt 18% 51.7%±11.9 49.1%
FH through the middle 12% 42.1%±13.0 47.0%
FH down the line 11% 53.4%±13.3 51.5%
BH down the line 8% 42.7%±14.4 48.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 140 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 43.3%±9.1 48.0%
BH through the middle 27% 44.4%±10.7 43.8%
BH down the line 14% 43.2%±12.9 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +5 How much less varied Mattia Bellucci's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 69 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 34% 47% ▲ 76% / 73%
Body 11% 6% 64% / 63%
T 55% 47% 72% / 75%

375 normal · 17 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 62% 58% 69% / 73%
Body 10% 6% 68% / 63%
T 28% 37% ▲ 74% / 72%

307 normal · 52 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide35% 65.9%±6.1 n=136 48% ▲
Body11% 61.1%±9.5 n=42 0% ▼
T55% 63.6%±5.1 n=214 52% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.65).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide61% 62.4%±5.0 n=220 58% ▼
Body10% 70.4%±9.3 n=35 0% ▼
T29% 61.4%±6.9 n=104 42% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.20).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.38 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.8±8.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (303 repeats, 428 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 15 40% +3.2±12.0
1stAd courtT 92 24% −3.9±6.4
1stAd courtWide 77 25% −1.8±6.9
1stDeuce courtBody 25 36% −0.3±10.7
1stDeuce courtT 76 19% −5.7±6.3
1stDeuce courtWide 103 26% −1.5±6.2
2ndAd courtBody 36 50% +0.3±10.1
2ndAd courtT 59 46% −3.5±8.7
2ndAd courtWide 59 55% +6.1±8.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 69 42% −6.9±8.2
2ndDeuce courtT 27 45% −4.2±10.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 67 47% −1.2±8.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Mattia Bellucci's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 63% · −8.8±11.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.8% · won 63% · −8.6±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.2% · won 61% · −10.8±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 7.3% · won 62% · −9.5±9.7 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 8.6% · won 57% · −14.8±9.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 19.9% · won 35% · +5.8±8.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 17.6% · won 24% · −4.8±8.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 51% · +6.0±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.5% · won 50% · +5.1±10.1 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 6.4% · won 49% · +4.2±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 50% · +5.1±11.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 47% · +2.4±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Mattia Bellucci wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.2% · won 52% · +4.4±12.4 vs own baseline · +15.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.9% · won 51% · +3.1±11.1 vs own baseline · +7.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Cem Ilkel (3/7)
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 49% · +1.2±11.3 vs own baseline · +1.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (4/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 49% · +0.9±12.9 vs own baseline · +1.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (3/7)
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.4% · won 47% · −1.1±12.0 vs own baseline · +2.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Cem Ilkel (3/7)
  6. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 45% · −2.8±10.5 vs own baseline · −4.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · rally+1.9178
FH to their backhand · serve +1+0.9131
FH to their backhand · rally−0.4193
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.6136
BH to their backhand · rally−0.9126

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · rally−2.3125
BH to the middle · return−1.0196
FH to their backhand · rally−0.6314
T 1st serve · ad court+0.7155
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.9159

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juncheng Shang, Pedro Martinez, Learner Tien, Miomir Kecmanovic, Nishesh Basavareddy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle32%
Wide serves · ad61%
Drop shots / shot3.4%
T serves · deuce55%
Chipped returns27%
Deep returns35%
1st serve in62%
Avg rally length4.0
Unforced errors / shot10.0%
Forehand share52%
Serve & volley4%
Point-ending shots22.6%
Points at net10%
Backhand slice15%
BH down the line16%
Run-around forehands7%
Wide serves · deuce35%
T serves · ad29%
FH down the line22%

Plays most like

  1. Federico Delbonis 2013–2023 plan v
  2. Cameron Norrie 2015–2026 plan v
  3. Paolo Lorenzi 2014–2019 plan v
  4. Cristian Garin 2018–2025 plan v
  5. Yoshihito Nishioka 2015–2025 plan v
  6. Gaston Gaudio 2002–2005 plan v
  7. Dominik Koepfer 2018–2025 plan v
  8. Yannick Hanfmann 2021–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Gaston Gaudio 2002–2005
  2. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  3. Tommy Haas 1996–2017

Charted matches