Buenos Aires · R32 · Clay · 12 Feb 2025
Joao Fonseca v Tomas Martin Etcheverry
62–51 in points · Joao Fonseca won
Why it went the way it did
Joao Fonseca won 6.6 more points than Tomas Martin Etcheverry relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tomas Martin Etcheverry's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.4, forehand execution −3.0, touch execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Joao Fonseca | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +1.9 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.7 | +1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +2.6 | +2.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +2.8 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.0 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +1.4 | −3.0 | −1.5 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.1 | +3.1 | +3.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −3.4 | +0.7 | −2.5 | −0.2 | −3.4 | +0.8 | −2.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −2.6 | +10.0 | +8.3 | +0.1 | −2.1 | +3.7 | +1.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Joao Fonseca | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Net, Joao | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.0 | +3.4 | +0.6 | |
| 2 | +4.3 | −1.7 | +6.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Joao Fonseca serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 71% | – | 45% 64% |
| 2 | 48% 70% | – | 52% 55% |
Set to set +0.97 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tomas Martin Etcheverry serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 56% | – | 53% 80% |
| 2 | 43% 28% | 2% 100% | 55% 61% |
Within sets −2.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Joao Fonseca
4.5 points left on the table across 203 shots 2.20 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
5.0 points left on the table across 184 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts