RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 53 charted matches · 2024–2026

Joao Fonseca

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 67.2% ±2.4 raw 65.6% · tour 63.4% · 4,015 points
Return points won 38.5% ±2.6 raw 36.5% · tour 36.6% · 4,119 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.02 ±0.07 better than 62% of ATP · raw +0.02
Shot selection −0.24 ±0.14 better than 28% of ATP · raw −0.22
Execution +0.83 ±0.60 better than 93% of ATP · raw +1.00
Tactical adaptability −0.10 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 52 matches
Adaptation speed −0.13 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.55 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 55% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 18,783 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Joao Fonseca goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,297 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 48.4%±3.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 46.0%±4.8 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 45.1%±5.5 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 6% 35.3%±7.8 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 36.7%±8.7 42.5%
FH inside-in 4% 57.0%±9.7 54.7%
BH slice down the line 4% 43.0%±10.0 37.1%
FH inside-out 4% 49.0%±10.1 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 800 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 52.4%±4.5 46.6%
FH down the line 27% 46.8%±5.4 44.7%
FH through the middle 19% 42.4%±6.2 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 7% 21.4%±7.6 24.5%
FH slice down the line 4% 25.7%±10.1 25.6%
FH slice crosscourt 4% 27.5%±10.6 30.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 757 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 56.1%±5.5 52.7%
FH down the line 23% 57.3%±5.8 51.5%
FH through the middle 13% 46.6%±7.5 47.0%
BH crosscourt 11% 50.8%±8.1 49.1%
BH through the middle 9% 54.3%±8.7 46.8%
BH down the line 8% 48.9%±9.4 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 3% 73.4%±11.3 70.5%
BH slice through the middle 2% 41.0%±13.9 44.8%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 742 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 35% 47.8%±5.0 46.9%
BH through the middle 22% 45.4%±6.0 43.0%
BH down the line 14% 47.8%±7.4 44.2%
BH slice through the middle 11% 28.0%±7.3 32.6%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 44.4%±9.3 40.9%
BH slice down the line 6% 33.9%±9.7 33.3%
FH inside-out 2% 45.6%±13.3 51.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Joao Fonseca's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 260 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 42% 76% / 73%
Body 9% 6% 65% / 63%
T 48% 52% 76% / 75%

2,039 normal · 65 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 53% 69% / 73%
Body 10% 10% 61% / 63%
T 37% 37% 70% / 72%

1,709 normal · 195 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 70.0%±2.5 n=898 56% ▲
Body9% 65.5%±5.3 n=190 0% ▼
T48% 67.6%±2.4 n=1,016 44% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.28).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 61.9%±2.5 n=999 50% ▼
Body10% 59.7%±5.3 n=198 0% ▼
T37% 64.1%±2.9 n=707 50% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.38).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.68 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.0±2.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,637 repeats, 2,265 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 129 38% +0.8±6.3
1stAd courtT 492 26% −2.5±3.1
1stAd courtWide 616 28% +1.1±2.9
1stDeuce courtBody 127 40% +3.4±6.4
1stDeuce courtT 639 27% +1.9±2.8
1stDeuce courtWide 617 31% +3.8±3.0
2ndAd courtBody 207 54% +4.1±5.3
2ndAd courtT 154 53% +3.3±6.1
2ndAd courtWide 367 49% +0.6±4.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 222 48% −1.1±5.2
2ndDeuce courtT 381 47% −2.5±4.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 166 48% −0.4±5.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Joao Fonseca's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 67% · −2.0±7.6 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 66% · −3.0±6.3 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 66% · −2.9±6.2 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 64% · −4.8±6.2 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 64% · −5.4±6.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.3% · won 53% · +11.0±8.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.4% · won 51% · +9.4±8.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.5% · won 49% · +7.2±7.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.2% · won 47% · +5.6±8.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.4% · won 46% · +4.8±8.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 62% · +12.6±6.8 vs own baseline
  2. BH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 61% · +11.2±9.4 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 57% · +7.5±7.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 56% · +6.4±8.0 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.2% · won 58% · +8.3±9.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Joao Fonseca wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 67% · +16.9±10.3 vs own baseline · +23.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 63% · +12.5±9.6 vs own baseline · +15.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH crosscourt → FH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 66% · +16.3±11.5 vs own baseline · +20.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. T serve → BH through the middle return, deep → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 63% · +13.4±10.6 vs own baseline · +24.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 60% · +9.8±9.2 vs own baseline · +18.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → BH down the line used 0.3% · won 64% · +14.3±11.3 vs own baseline · +28.2 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · return+4.1223
BH to their forehand · return+3.3283
T 2nd serve · deuce court+3.1238
T 1st serve · deuce court+2.91,004
BH to their forehand · serve +1+2.5228

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · return−2.9221
BH to their backhand · return−2.8557
BH to their forehand · return +1−2.6133
T 2nd serve · deuce court−2.3375
BH to the middle · return−2.0740

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.22, Jack Draper +1.01, Miomir Kecmanovic +0.91, Casper Ruud +0.81, Nishesh Basavareddy +0.76

Favourable matchups

Fabian Marozsan +1.64, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.60, Pedro Martinez +1.52, Alexander Shevchenko +1.39, Roberto Bautista Agut +1.33

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Ugo Humbert, Karen Khachanov, Andy Murray, Yoshihito Nishioka, Roberto Bautista Agut

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in66%
BH down the line26%
Point-ending shots28.0%
Unforced errors / shot11.7%
Deep returns32%
FH down the line33%
Run-around forehands24%
T serves · deuce48%
Drop shots / shot2.0%
Wide serves · ad52%
Forehand share55%
Chipped returns16%
Backhand slice21%
Wide serves · deuce43%
T serves · ad37%
Avg rally length3.8
Serve & volley2%
Points at net8%
Through the middle21%

Plays most like

  1. Fernando Verdasco 2005–2022 plan v
  2. Hubert Hurkacz 2018–2026 plan v
  3. Sebastian Korda 2021–2026 plan v
  4. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v
  5. Fabian Marozsan 2021–2026 plan v
  6. Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2007–2022 plan v
  7. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  8. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Robin Soderling 2004–2011
  2. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014
  3. Fernando Gonzalez 2000–2010

Charted matches