Buenos Aires · R16 · Clay · 13 Feb 2025
Diego Schwartzman v Pedro Martinez
34–57 in points · Pedro Martinez won
Why it went the way it did
Pedro Martinez won 10.7 more points than Diego Schwartzman relative to what the serve alone predicted. Diego Schwartzman's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.1, slice shot selection −1.8, serve 2nd execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Diego Schwartzman | Pedro Martinez | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +1.7 | +2.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +2.9 | +3.2 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +2.5 | −3.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | +2.3 | +4.0 | +6.0 |
| Backhand | +0.7 | −0.2 | +3.3 | +3.7 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +5.7 | +6.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.8 | +0.8 | −0.8 | +0.4 | −3.6 | +0.9 | −2.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −1.0 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +0.8 | +1.2 | +2.8 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +12.6 | +13.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Diego Schwartzman | Pedro Martinez | Net, Diego | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.9 | +6.4 | −4.5 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | +7.1 | −6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Diego Schwartzman serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 20% | 19% 25% | 33% 71% |
| 2 | 38% 63% | 19% 0% | 43% 44% |
Within sets +2.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pedro Martinez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 43% | 40% 50% | 32% 88% |
| 2 | 50% 75% | 17% 50% | 33% 75% |
Within sets −0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Diego Schwartzman
5.0 points left on the table across 274 shots 1.82 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Pedro Martinez
5.4 points left on the table across 258 shots 2.09 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts