Buenos Aires · QF · Clay · 14 Feb 2025
Mariano Navone v Joao Fonseca
107–105 in points · Joao Fonseca won
Why it went the way it did
Mariano Navone won 2.6 more points than Joao Fonseca relative to what the serve alone predicted. Joao Fonseca's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.3, forehand execution −3.2, touch execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mariano Navone | Joao Fonseca | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.2 | −2.6 | −3.1 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.6 | −1.1 | −0.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +3.0 | −2.0 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +4.0 | −3.2 | +1.8 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −1.0 | +2.5 | +1.6 | −0.3 | −0.9 | +1.1 | −0.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −4.7 | +0.9 | −3.9 | −0.9 | −5.3 | −0.6 | −6.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −1.4 | −2.5 |
| All shots | −0.9 | −2.4 | −0.9 | −4.2 | −0.1 | −2.5 | −4.0 | −6.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Mariano Navone | Joao Fonseca | Net, Mariano | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.8 | −2.1 | +3.9 | |
| 2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 | |
| 3 | −5.8 | −4.8 | −1.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mariano Navone serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 57% | 19% 43% | 43% 75% |
| 2 | 43% 69% | 7% 0% | 50% 40% |
| 3 | 47% 63% | 24% 38% | 29% 80% |
Set to set +0.74 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Joao Fonseca serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 38% | 13% 75% | 38% 58% |
| 2 | 44% 69% | 33% 58% | 22% 13% |
| 3 | 44% 61% | 17% 57% | 39% 75% |
Set to set −0.89 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mariano Navone
11.4 points left on the table across 499 shots 2.29 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
Joao Fonseca
12.4 points left on the table across 508 shots 2.44 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.98 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×23; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.89 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×11; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.81 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts