Hersonissos CH · R32 · Hard · 4 Mar 2025
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo v Stefanos Sakellaridis
46–66 in points · Stefanos Sakellaridis won
Why it went the way it did
Stefanos Sakellaridis won 11.8 more points than Juan Carlos Prado Angelo relative to what the serve alone predicted. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo's biggest leaks: forehand execution −1.7, serve 1st execution −1.1, return execution −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Stefanos Sakellaridis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +2.4 | +3.9 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.9 | −1.7 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +3.4 | +3.2 | +7.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.7 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +1.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.6 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −0.7 | −2.1 |
| Net | +0.6 | +0.3 | −0.6 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.9 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.3 | +1.9 | −1.6 | +1.5 | +0.9 | +4.5 | +7.9 | +13.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Stefanos Sakellaridis | Net, Juan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.9 | +5.3 | −7.2 | |
| 2 | +3.4 | +8.0 | −4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% 60% | – | 66% 42% |
| 2 | 39% 69% | 3% 100% | 58% 53% |
Set to set +0.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stefanos Sakellaridis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 73% | 5% 100% | 43% 78% |
| 2 | 52% 73% | 3% 0% | 45% 85% |
Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
4.0 points left on the table across 230 shots 1.74 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Stefanos Sakellaridis
4.7 points left on the table across 237 shots 1.99 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH down the line ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts