ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2024–2025
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Value per 100 shots
Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,812 shots.
Shot expected value
The share of points Juan Carlos Prado Angelo goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 395 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 39% | 50.9%±6.3 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 30% | 46.1%±7.1 | 43.7% |
| BH down the line | 8% | 51.5%±11.5 | 46.4% |
| FH inside-out | 8% | 53.8%±11.7 | 51.8% |
| FH inside-in | 7% | 55.2%±11.9 | 54.7% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 3% | 45.3%±14.5 | 42.5% |
| FH through the middle | 3% | 45.3%±14.7 | 45.2% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 248 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 34% | 56.5%±8.0 | 51.5% |
| FH crosscourt | 24% | 55.7%±9.1 | 52.7% |
| FH through the middle | 19% | 37.9%±9.8 | 47.0% |
| BH crosscourt | 10% | 56.1%±12.0 | 49.1% |
| BH through the middle | 5% | 40.5%±14.1 | 46.8% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 236 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 40% | 50.1%±7.8 | 48.0% |
| BH through the middle | 27% | 48.5%±9.2 | 43.8% |
| BH down the line | 16% | 48.7%±11.0 | 46.5% |
| FH inside-out | 5% | 53.3%±14.7 | 52.6% |
| FH through the middle | 4% | 47.4%±15.0 | 46.1% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 196 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 41% | 47.1%±8.6 | 46.6% |
| FH through the middle | 37% | 42.0%±8.9 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line | 22% | 44.7%±10.7 | 44.7% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index −5 How much less varied Juan Carlos Prado Angelo's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 61 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 27% | 18% ▼ | 69% / 73% |
| Body | 2% | 9% | 65% / 63% |
| T | 71% | 73% | 64% / 75% |
296 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 52% | 62% ▲ | 67% / 73% |
| Body | 0% | 2% | 65% / 63% |
| T | 47% | 36% ▼ | 63% / 72% |
234 normal · 50 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 27% | 60.2%±7.6 n=83 | 40% ▲ |
| Body | 2% | 62.7%±13.3 n=6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 71% | 57.9%±5.2 n=218 | 60% ▼ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.70).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 54% | 57.1%±6.0 n=153 | 67% ▲ |
| Body | 1% | 57.9%±14.4 n=2 | 0% |
| T | 45% | 52.7%±6.5 n=129 | 33% ▼ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.41).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.
Exploitability 0.31 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: ±0.0±9.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (271 repeats, 306 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 3 | 34% | −3.4±13.5 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 77 | 31% | +3.2±7.4 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 112 | 35% | +8.1±6.6 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 3 | 36% | −0.3±13.8 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 119 | 33% | +7.5±6.3 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 82 | 30% | +3.3±7.2 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 14 | 47% | −2.1±12.4 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 16 | 56% | +6.8±12.0 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 69 | 51% | +2.7±8.3 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 5 | 48% | −1.3±13.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 90 | 51% | +1.1±7.5 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 24 | 51% | +2.7±11.2 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Juan Carlos Prado Angelo's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 6.8% · won 61% · +0.1±10.6 vs own baseline
- T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 11.2% · won 59% · −1.1±9.0 vs own baseline
- Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 6.8% · won 59% · −1.7±10.6 vs own baseline
- T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 12.7% · won 59% · −1.8±8.6 vs own baseline
- Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 7.3% · won 57% · −3.6±10.5 vs own baseline
Return
- vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, short used 8.4% · won 47% · +6.5±10.7 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 9.3% · won 46% · +5.8±10.4 vs own baseline
- vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 6.6% · won 46% · +6.1±11.4 vs own baseline
- vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 9.3% · won 41% · +0.9±10.3 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 7.2% · won 41% · +0.7±11.1 vs own baseline
Rally, consecutive own shots
- BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 60% · +10.3±10.9 vs own baseline
- BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 54% · +4.3±10.3 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 2.9% · won 54% · +4.9±11.1 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.3% · won 52% · +2.8±8.8 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 52% · +3.2±9.6 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Juan Carlos Prado Angelo wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 57% · +8.0±10.3 vs own baseline · +13.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Dmitry Popko (6/13), Alvaro Guillen Meza (3/6)
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.1% · won 54% · +5.6±11.6 vs own baseline · +12.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Juan Pablo Varillas (4/8), Vilius Gaubas (4/6)
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 1.4% · won 53% · +4.2±10.9 vs own baseline · +12.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Vilius Gaubas (3/6), Dmitry Popko (4/8)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.9% · won 54% · +5.0±12.2 vs own baseline · +15.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Juan Pablo Varillas (0/6), Dmitry Popko (6/7)
- BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 54% · +5.1±12.5 vs own baseline · +9.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Juan Pablo Varillas (4/7)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 54% · +5.3±12.8 vs own baseline · +13.7 vs tour on the same sequence
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| BH to the middle · return | +3.2 | 157 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +2.5 | 204 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.0 | 200 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.9 | 317 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −1.0 | 120 |
Most exposed to
| FH to the middle · rally | −3.3 | 168 |
| BH to the middle · return | −2.7 | 148 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −2.2 | 276 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −1.5 | 181 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −0.9 | 368 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Pedro Martinez, Yoshihito Nishioka, Raphael Collignon, Nishesh Basavareddy, Roberto Carballes Baena
Charted matches
- Alvaro Guillen Meza v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Campinas CH QF · Clay · 4 Apr 2025
- Dmitry Popko v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo W Merida CH R16 · Clay · 20 Mar 2025
- Juan Carlos Prado Angelo v Stefanos Sakellaridis L Hersonissos CH R32 · Hard · 4 Mar 2025
- Juan Pablo Varillas v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo L Buenos Aires CH R32 · Clay · 14 Jan 2025
- Aleksandar Kovacevic v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo W Temuco CH R16 · Hard · 27 Nov 2024
- Juan Carlos Prado Angelo v Vilius Gaubas W Vicenza CH R16 · Clay · 29 May 2024
- Juan Carlos Prado Angelo v Juan Pablo Varillas L Asuncion CH R32 · Clay · 20 Mar 2024