Indian Wells Masters · R64 · Hard · 7 Mar 2025
Gabriel Diallo v Arthur Fils
32–60 in points · Arthur Fils won
Why it went the way it did
Arthur Fils won 16.7 more points than Gabriel Diallo relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gabriel Diallo's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.5, forehand execution −2.5, net execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gabriel Diallo | Arthur Fils | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.1 | −2.1 | −2.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.2 | +2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +1.2 | −2.5 | −1.9 | −0.2 | +1.9 | +2.6 | +4.3 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.7 | −2.5 | −2.2 | −0.4 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +0.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.3 |
| Net | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −2.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −1.7 | +1.5 | −11.5 | −11.7 | −0.5 | +2.7 | +2.8 | +5.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Gabriel Diallo | Arthur Fils | Net, Gabriel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.9 | +0.5 | −9.4 | |
| 2 | −2.8 | +4.5 | −7.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gabriel Diallo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 40% | 16% 60% | 35% 27% |
| 2 | 46% 45% | 8% 0% | 46% 64% |
Set to set −0.61 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Arthur Fils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22% 50% | 28% 80% | 50% 78% |
| 2 | 37% 100% | 16% 33% | 47% 89% |
Within sets +1.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gabriel Diallo
5.7 points left on the table across 175 shots 3.24 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Arthur Fils
4.8 points left on the table across 178 shots 2.71 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts