RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 14 charted matches · 2024–2025

Gabriel Diallo

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.7% ±3.0 raw 62.7% · tour 63.4% · 1,116 points
Return points won 35.8% ±3.0 raw 31.8% · tour 36.6% · 1,055 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.28 ±0.06 better than 7% of ATP · raw −0.28
Shot selection +0.45 ±0.13 better than 89% of ATP · raw +0.45
Execution −2.12 ±0.74 better than 2% of ATP · raw −2.07
Tactical adaptability +0.02 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 14 matches
Adaptation speed +0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.80 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 31% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,785 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Gabriel Diallo goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 210 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 42.4%±7.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 34% 37.8%±8.3 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 46.0%±13.3 42.5%
BH down the line 6% 49.3%±14.3 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 198 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 28% 46.1%±9.5 52.7%
FH through the middle 25% 26.7%±8.8 47.0%
BH through the middle 16% 35.3%±10.9 46.8%
BH crosscourt 10% 61.1%±12.8 49.1%
FH down the line 10% 46.9%±13.1 51.5%
BH down the line 7% 38.3%±13.9 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 186 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 42.7%±8.5 46.6%
FH through the middle 35% 34.1%±8.4 41.5%
FH down the line 18% 44.3%±11.1 44.7%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 115 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 33% 48.6%±10.8 56.0%
FH through the middle 24% 36.4%±11.4 47.3%
FH down the line 19% 51.6%±12.7 53.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +13 How much less varied Gabriel Diallo's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 86 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 39% 74% / 73%
Body 11% 0% ▼ 64% / 63%
T 45% 61% ▲ 74% / 75%

563 normal · 23 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 52% 72% / 73%
Body 14% 10% 62% / 63%
T 38% 38% 72% / 72%

467 normal · 63 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 66.1%±4.6 n=255 57% ▲
Body11% 62.1%±8.3 n=62 0% ▼
T46% 63.0%±4.6 n=269 43% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.58).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 62.0%±4.7 n=258 49%
Body13% 57.1%±8.1 n=71 0% ▼
T38% 61.8%±5.3 n=201 51% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.55).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.62 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.8±5.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (309 repeats, 779 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 34 35% −2.5±9.8
1stAd courtT 158 25% −3.3±5.2
1stAd courtWide 119 26% −1.6±5.9
1stDeuce courtBody 33 40% +3.0±10.1
1stDeuce courtT 159 23% −2.0±5.0
1stDeuce courtWide 142 23% −4.4±5.3
2ndAd courtBody 70 52% +2.4±8.2
2ndAd courtT 48 43% −6.0±9.2
2ndAd courtWide 71 42% −6.3±8.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 100 45% −3.9±7.2
2ndDeuce courtT 88 41% −8.3±7.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 30 46% −2.4±10.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Gabriel Diallo's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.0% · won 66% · −5.1±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 61% · −9.7±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 60% · −11.2±10.0 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 57% · −14.4±10.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 6.0% · won 49% · +12.8±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 5.2% · won 45% · +9.1±11.0 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 4.2% · won 44% · +7.6±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 5.8% · won 41% · +5.0±10.6 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.2% · won 32% · −3.7±10.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 44% · +5.6±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 43% · +5.4±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 8.0% · won 42% · +4.0±9.6 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 5.4% · won 43% · +4.8±10.8 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 5.4% · won 43% · +4.8±10.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Gabriel Diallo wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.2% · won 47% · +4.9±11.6 vs own baseline · +7.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Arthur Fils (7/8)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 47% · +4.3±12.7 vs own baseline · −0.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Raphael Collignon (4/7)
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 44% · +1.9±12.6 vs own baseline · +2.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 43% · +0.6±12.7 vs own baseline · −2.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Musetti (1/6)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 0.7% · won 43% · +0.6±12.7 vs own baseline · −0.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 42% · −0.4±12.5 vs own baseline · −7.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court+1.7269
T 1st serve · ad court+1.6201
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.6258
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.4255
BH to their backhand · rally+1.0187

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−1.1252
FH to the middle · return−0.9170
T 1st serve · ad court−0.7234
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.2223
FH to the middle · rally−0.2179

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Unforced errors / shot14.5%
Through the middle33%
Forehand share60%
Point-ending shots29.8%
Deep returns34%
1st serve in65%
Run-around forehands22%
Drop shots / shot1.9%
Points at net13%
Serve & volley11%
T serves · deuce46%
Wide serves · deuce44%
T serves · ad38%
Wide serves · ad49%
Chipped returns12%
Backhand slice15%
BH down the line17%
Avg rally length3.3
FH down the line26%

Plays most like

  1. Arthur Rinderknech 2021–2026 plan v
  2. Jiri Lehecka 2019–2026 plan v
  3. Ben Shelton 2021–2026 plan v
  4. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  5. Vasek Pospisil 2013–2023 plan v
  6. Nicolas Jarry 2019–2025 plan v
  7. Zhizhen Zhang 2019–2026 plan v
  8. Denis Shapovalov 2016–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Roger Federer 1998–2021
  2. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  3. Mardy Fish 2003–2012

Charted matches