Indian Wells Masters · R64 · Hard · 8 Mar 2025
Joao Fonseca v Jack Draper
45–61 in points · Jack Draper won
Why it went the way it did
Jack Draper won 5.9 more points than Joao Fonseca relative to what the serve alone predicted. Joao Fonseca's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.4, net execution −2.1, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Joao Fonseca | Jack Draper | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +2.5 | +2.6 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +2.6 | +3.1 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.4 | −3.4 | −1.8 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +3.0 | +4.3 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +2.7 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | +0.6 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −3.2 | +0.2 | −3.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −2.1 | −1.4 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +1.3 | +1.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +1.2 | −0.2 | +1.7 | +0.2 | −1.0 | +8.3 | +7.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Joao Fonseca | Jack Draper | Net, Joao | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.4 | +1.0 | +1.4 | |
| 2 | −0.8 | +6.6 | −7.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Joao Fonseca serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 56% | – | 33% 67% |
| 2 | 63% 25% | 5% 0% | 32% 50% |
Within sets −0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jack Draper serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 57% | 3% 100% | 63% 56% |
| 2 | 45% 78% | – | 55% 64% |
Set to set −0.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Joao Fonseca
4.3 points left on the table across 196 shots 2.17 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Jack Draper
5.6 points left on the table across 188 shots 2.96 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts