Kigali CH · F · Clay · 9 Mar 2025
Guy Den Ouden v Valentin Royer
50–67 in points · Valentin Royer won
Why it went the way it did
Valentin Royer won 8.7 more points than Guy Den Ouden relative to what the serve alone predicted. Guy Den Ouden's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.4, return execution −1.6, backhand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Guy Den Ouden | Valentin Royer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.6 | −2.4 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +2.0 | −0.1 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.2 | +0.7 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −0.8 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Other | −0.2 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −1.0 | −6.4 | −7.5 | +0.2 | +1.9 | −0.8 | +1.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Guy Den Ouden | Valentin Royer | Net, Guy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.2 | +0.7 | −4.9 | |
| 2 | −3.3 | +0.5 | −3.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Guy Den Ouden serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 59% | 18% 33% | 30% 50% |
| 2 | 46% 77% | 14% 75% | 39% 55% |
Set to set −0.67 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Valentin Royer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 69% | 17% 80% | 40% 58% |
| 2 | 52% 85% | 24% 100% | 24% 67% |
Set to set +0.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Guy Den Ouden
4.7 points left on the table across 159 shots 2.96 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Valentin Royer
3.9 points left on the table across 153 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts