RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2025–2026

Valentin Royer

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.0% ±3.6 raw 63.7% · tour 63.4% · 498 points
Return points won 36.4% ±3.6 raw 37.1% · tour 36.6% · 558 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.08 ±0.16 better than 34% of ATP · raw −0.07
Shot selection +0.45 ±0.24 better than 89% of ATP · raw +0.48
Execution −1.03 ±0.65 better than 24% of ATP · raw −0.60

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,616 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Valentin Royer goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 153 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 58.6%±8.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 42.9%±11.2 43.7%
BH down the line 17% 52.8%±12.1 46.4%
FH inside-out 10% 55.3%±13.8 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 121 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 53.9%±11.3 52.7%
FH down the line 23% 46.5%±11.8 51.5%
FH through the middle 20% 46.4%±12.4 47.0%
BH through the middle 13% 48.2%±13.7 46.8%
BH crosscourt 12% 48.1%±13.9 49.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 93 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 46.3%±10.7 46.6%
FH through the middle 29% 47.4%±12.0 41.5%
FH down the line 29% 44.6%±11.9 44.7%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 86 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 67% 47.9%±9.3 46.9%
BH through the middle 20% 44.9%±13.5 43.0%
BH down the line 13% 47.9%±14.8 44.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Valentin Royer's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 44 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 55% ▲ 78% / 73%
Body 22% 18% 65% / 63%
T 43% 27% ▼ 75% / 75%

251 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 45% 71% / 73%
Body 18% 24% 56% / 63%
T 36% 30% 75% / 72%

202 normal · 33 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide36% 68.5%±6.9 n=94 49% ▲
Body22% 64.3%±8.4 n=57 9% ▼
T42% 63.0%±6.7 n=111 42%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.53).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 63.6%±6.7 n=109 46%
Body19% 54.5%±9.5 n=44 6% ▼
T35% 65.3%±7.4 n=82 48% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.13).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.81 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +10.8±11.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (134 repeats, 353 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 27 37% ±0.0±10.5
1stAd courtT 72 28% −0.2±7.3
1stAd courtWide 78 29% +1.6±7.2
1stDeuce courtBody 19 37% ±0.0±11.3
1stDeuce courtT 76 26% +0.9±7.0
1stDeuce courtWide 85 25% −1.8±6.7
2ndAd courtBody 55 53% +3.3±8.9
2ndAd courtT 8 47% −2.5±13.3
2ndAd courtWide 29 45% −3.4±10.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 58 50% +0.7±8.8
2ndDeuce courtT 30 58% +8.5±10.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 21 52% +3.7±11.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Valentin Royer's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 7.1% · won 56% · +1.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 5.5% · won 55% · +0.2±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.7% · won 54% · −0.4±10.8 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 6.3% · won 52% · −2.9±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.8% · won 50% · −4.8±11.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Valentin Royer wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 61% · +7.5±12.7 vs own baseline · +23.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniel Elahi Galan (5/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.1% · won 56% · +2.5±13.0 vs own baseline · +13.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniel Elahi Galan (6/11)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 54% · +0.7±12.2 vs own baseline · +6.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Christopher Oconnell (6/10), Daniel Elahi Galan (4/6)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · return+0.6123
BH to their backhand · rally+0.4150
FH to their backhand · rally+0.1162
FH to their forehand · rally−0.7162

Most exposed to

FH to the middle · rally−1.8126
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.6136
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.5129
FH to their forehand · rally−0.1148
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.4126

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Pedro Martinez, Yoshihito Nishioka, Raphael Collignon, Nishesh Basavareddy, Roberto Carballes Baena

Charted matches