Indian Wells · R32 · Hard · 9 Mar 2025
Marta Kostyuk v Caroline Dolehide
82–68 in points · Marta Kostyuk won
Why it went the way it did
Marta Kostyuk won 7.6 more points than Caroline Dolehide relative to what the serve alone predicted. Caroline Dolehide's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.6, slice shot selection −2.5, backhand execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marta Kostyuk | Caroline Dolehide | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −1.4 | +1.2 | −0.1 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +1.3 | +1.4 | +2.2 | −1.1 | +2.2 | −3.6 | −2.6 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +1.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | −2.3 | −1.8 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −3.1 | +0.3 | −2.7 | −0.1 | −2.5 | −0.3 | −2.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.9 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −2.3 | −1.3 | −1.1 | −7.5 | −9.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Marta Kostyuk | Caroline Dolehide | Net, Marta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.2 | −5.3 | +2.1 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | −4.6 | +5.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marta Kostyuk serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 60% | 31% 62% | 33% 57% |
| 2 | 52% 73% | 21% 67% | 28% 50% |
Set to set −2.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Caroline Dolehide serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 78% | 22% 20% | 39% 44% |
| 2 | 39% 68% | 18% 30% | 43% 46% |
Within sets +0.64 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marta Kostyuk
8.1 points left on the table across 257 shots 3.15 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH down the line rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Caroline Dolehide
8.3 points left on the table across 247 shots 3.36 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts