Miami Masters · R128 · Hard · 20 Mar 2025
Learner Tien v Joao Fonseca
100–107 in points · Joao Fonseca won
Why it went the way it did
Joao Fonseca won 4.8 more points than Learner Tien relative to what the serve alone predicted. Learner Tien's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.3, net execution −1.1, return shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Learner Tien | Joao Fonseca | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +3.1 | +3.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +2.5 | +2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | −0.1 | +3.3 | +3.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.9 | +4.2 | +3.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +6.4 | +7.0 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.5 | −0.1 | +2.0 | +0.6 | +2.0 | +4.6 | +7.2 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +2.4 | +0.4 | +1.4 | −2.4 | −0.6 |
| Slice | +0.5 | −6.3 | +1.0 | −4.7 | −0.3 | −4.1 | +0.8 | −3.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.8 | −1.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +1.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +1.4 | −4.8 | +12.3 | +9.0 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +12.9 | +13.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Learner Tien | Joao Fonseca | Net, Learner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +0.5 | |
| 2 | +1.3 | +4.4 | −3.1 | |
| 3 | +4.1 | +6.4 | −2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Learner Tien serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 64% | 6% 67% | 48% 65% |
| 2 | 34% 30% | 7% 100% | 59% 71% |
| 3 | 39% 83% | – | 61% 58% |
Set to set +0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Joao Fonseca serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 62% | 12% 40% | 37% 73% |
| 2 | 66% 67% | 9% 100% | 25% 63% |
| 3 | 42% 73% | 4% 100% | 54% 79% |
Set to set +0.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.91 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Learner Tien
7.9 points left on the table across 331 shots 2.38 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Joao Fonseca
7.9 points left on the table across 337 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×6; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts