Bogota · R16 · Clay · 2 Apr 2025
Katarzyna Kawa v Laura Pigossi
98–107 in points · Katarzyna Kawa won
Why it went the way it did
Laura Pigossi won 5.9 more points than Katarzyna Kawa relative to what the serve alone predicted. Katarzyna Kawa's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.6, touch shot selection −4.0, return execution −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Katarzyna Kawa | Laura Pigossi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.7 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | +1.0 | −3.0 | −2.0 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +4.4 | +5.5 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +5.8 | −5.6 | +1.3 | −0.3 | +4.7 | −1.7 | +2.7 |
| Backhand | +0.8 | +1.1 | +1.9 | +3.8 | −0.6 | +1.8 | +0.3 | +1.4 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.5 | +1.0 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | +0.9 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +1.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −4.0 | −0.6 | −4.2 | +0.2 | −2.7 | −1.2 | −3.7 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +1.9 | +3.7 | −7.1 | −1.5 | −2.0 | +2.6 | +3.8 | +4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Katarzyna Kawa | Laura Pigossi | Net, Katarzyna | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | +2.9 | −7.3 | |
| 2 | +2.4 | +2.9 | −0.6 | |
| 3 | +0.6 | −1.4 | +2.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Katarzyna Kawa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 20% | 30% 43% | 26% 50% |
| 2 | 34% 69% | 26% 42% | 40% 37% |
| 3 | 21% 50% | 55% 69% | 24% 43% |
Set to set +0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.55 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Laura Pigossi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% 100% | 53% 56% | 29% 80% |
| 2 | 23% 46% | 59% 48% | 18% 60% |
| 3 | 34% 80% | 52% 47% | 14% 0% |
Set to set +0.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Katarzyna Kawa
10.0 points left on the table across 494 shots 2.03 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
Laura Pigossi
14.0 points left on the table across 460 shots 3.03 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts