Barcelona · R32 · Clay · 15 Apr 2025
Reilly Opelka v Stefanos Tsitsipas
38–64 in points · Stefanos Tsitsipas won
Why it went the way it did
Stefanos Tsitsipas won 13.7 more points than Reilly Opelka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Reilly Opelka's biggest leaks: forehand execution −6.3, return execution −3.8, backhand execution −3.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Reilly Opelka | Stefanos Tsitsipas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.5 | −3.8 | −4.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.1 | −6.3 | −5.1 | +0.3 | +1.4 | −1.6 | ±0.0 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.2 | −3.2 | −3.6 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.4 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.3 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −0.6 | −15.8 | −16.1 | −0.8 | +0.9 | −2.5 | −2.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Reilly Opelka | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Net, Reilly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.1 | +0.7 | −7.9 | |
| 2 | −9.0 | −3.2 | −5.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Reilly Opelka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 64% | 10% 50% | 38% 25% |
| 2 | 55% 44% | – | 45% 53% |
Within sets −1.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stefanos Tsitsipas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 82% | 17% 100% | 22% 100% |
| 2 | 47% 57% | 17% 80% | 37% 73% |
Within sets +0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Reilly Opelka
4.4 points left on the table across 162 shots 2.71 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
Stefanos Tsitsipas
4.8 points left on the table across 142 shots 3.41 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts