Rouen · R32 · Clay · 15 Apr 2025
Lois Boisson v Harriet Dart
61–38 in points · Lois Boisson won
Why it went the way it did
Lois Boisson won 10.7 more points than Harriet Dart relative to what the serve alone predicted. Harriet Dart's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.1, slice shot selection −2.1, backhand execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lois Boisson | Harriet Dart | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +3.4 | +3.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.7 | +2.5 | +1.7 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +2.6 | +2.2 | +5.2 | +0.6 | +2.5 | −4.1 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −2.0 | −1.7 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −6.6 | +1.0 | −5.3 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −0.2 | −2.3 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +1.0 |
| Touch | +0.7 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.7 |
| All shots | +1.0 | −4.5 | +10.3 | +6.8 | +1.0 | +0.6 | −5.5 | −3.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Lois Boisson | Harriet Dart | Net, Lois | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.8 | −2.0 | +7.8 | |
| 2 | +1.1 | −1.8 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lois Boisson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 57% | 32% 67% | 32% 83% |
| 2 | 42% 75% | 21% 63% | 37% 57% |
Within sets +1.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Harriet Dart serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 33% | 33% 0% | 27% 25% |
| 2 | 30% 75% | 22% 83% | 48% 38% |
Within sets +0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lois Boisson
5.5 points left on the table across 198 shots 2.76 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
Harriet Dart
5.0 points left on the table across 217 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH lob down the line ×1; FH lob through the middle rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: smash to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH slice crosscourt ×2; FH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts