RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 2018–2025

Harriet Dart

Archetype: Runs around the backhand · Forehand-dominant

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 53.7% ±3.7 raw 49.8% · tour 56.3% · 641 points
Return points won 45.7% ±3.6 raw 43.2% · tour 43.7% · 660 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.06 ±0.10 better than 42% of WTA · raw −0.06
Shot selection −0.21 ±0.13 better than 27% of WTA · raw −0.20
Execution −0.09 ±0.63 better than 57% of WTA · raw −0.05
Tactical adaptability −0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed ±0.00 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.60 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 52% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,352 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Harriet Dart goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 204 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 47% 44.3%±7.6 46.7%
FH down the line 30% 40.7%±9.0 44.9%
FH through the middle 20% 42.1%±10.5 41.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 185 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 31% 54.5%±9.3 52.7%
FH through the middle 20% 44.1%±10.8 45.8%
BH through the middle 17% 48.5%±11.4 46.2%
FH down the line 11% 48.6%±13.0 52.2%
BH crosscourt 9% 50.5%±13.7 50.9%
BH down the line 8% 45.7%±13.9 50.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 128 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 41.7%±10.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 32% 42.1%±10.4 43.3%
BH down the line 16% 54.5%±12.8 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 8% 36.3%±14.4 34.4%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 109 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 24% 49.6%±12.1 54.0%
FH down the line 21% 52.7%±12.5 53.3%
BH through the middle 17% 44.3%±13.1 46.3%
FH through the middle 13% 38.5%±13.7 45.5%
BH crosscourt 13% 54.4%±14.1 52.5%
BH down the line 12% 49.1%±14.3 51.0%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Harriet Dart's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 91 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 32% ▼ 66% / 66%
Body 18% 23% 56% / 57%
T 40% 45% 64% / 68%

306 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 48% ▲ 63% / 66%
Body 22% 20% 54% / 56%
T 43% 32% ▼ 55% / 64%

242 normal · 69 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 52.1%±6.4 n=135 56% ▲
Body19% 53.5%±8.6 n=61 3% ▼
T40% 50.6%±6.5 n=132 41%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide38% 49.1%±6.8 n=118 53% ▲
Body22% 47.8%±8.3 n=67 6% ▼
T41% 46.1%±6.6 n=126 41%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.83).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.37 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.6±8.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (198 repeats, 421 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 54 38% −5.6±8.7
1stAd courtT 83 40% +4.0±7.6
1stAd courtWide 69 38% +3.3±8.0
1stDeuce courtBody 53 44% +1.7±9.0
1stDeuce courtT 72 28% −4.1±7.3
1stDeuce courtWide 96 33% −0.5±6.9
2ndAd courtBody 47 60% +5.4±9.2
2ndAd courtT 21 60% +4.8±11.3
2ndAd courtWide 46 57% +3.1±9.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 59 52% −2.4±8.7
2ndDeuce courtT 47 52% −4.3±9.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 11 54% +0.2±12.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Harriet Dart's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.4% · won 50% · −3.7±11.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 11.1% · won 44% · −0.6±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 11.6% · won 41% · −3.3±11.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.7% · won 51% · +4.2±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 11.9% · won 49% · +2.0±9.1 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 10.4% · won 49% · +1.9±9.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 7.9% · won 47% · ±0.0±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 8.4% · won 44% · −3.0±10.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Harriet Dart wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 48% · +2.3±11.5 vs own baseline · +1.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Maddison Inglis (6/7)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 41% · −4.6±12.8 vs own baseline · −16.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lois Boisson (1/6)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 37% · −8.7±10.4 vs own baseline · −17.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Karolina Pliskova (1/6), Belinda Bencic (2/8)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · rally+1.6188
FH to their forehand · rally+0.5225
BH to the middle · return−0.5137
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.9135
T 1st serve · deuce court−2.4132

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−2.7151
BH to the middle · return−1.7138
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.8130
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.2136
T 1st serve · ad court+0.2122

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Clara Burel, Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Arianne Hartono, Angelique Kerber

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Forehand share59%
BH down the line28%
Chipped returns20%
Drop shots / shot2.3%
T serves · deuce40%
T serves · ad41%
Wide serves · deuce41%
Deep returns33%
Point-ending shots23.8%
Avg rally length4.1
Through the middle28%
Backhand slice13%
Serve & volley0%
Run-around forehands6%
Wide serves · ad38%
Unforced errors / shot9.8%
FH down the line27%
Points at net5%
1st serve in55%

Plays most like

  1. Rebecca Sramkova 2016–2026 plan v
  2. Clara Tauson 2020–2026 plan v
  3. Irina Camelia Begu 2015–2024 plan v
  4. Donna Vekic 2014–2026 plan v
  5. Jaqueline Cristian 2021–2026 plan v
  6. Marta Kostyuk 2018–2026 plan v
  7. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 2014–2026 plan v
  8. Viktoria Hruncakova 2018–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Jelena Dokic 2000–2009
  2. Anastasia Myskina 2002–2006
  3. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010

Charted matches