Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 27 May 2025
Hubert Hurkacz v Joao Fonseca
60–90 in points · Joao Fonseca won
Why it went the way it did
Joao Fonseca won 15.6 more points than Hubert Hurkacz relative to what the serve alone predicted. Hubert Hurkacz's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.9, slice execution −2.0, slice shot selection −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Hubert Hurkacz | Joao Fonseca | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +1.8 | +1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −1.4 | −3.2 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +2.6 | −4.9 | −2.4 | +0.2 | +3.3 | +3.0 | +6.4 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +1.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −4.0 | +0.1 | −3.3 | +1.5 | −1.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −1.6 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −1.1 | −7.1 | −7.7 | +1.0 | −1.5 | +8.3 | +7.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Hubert Hurkacz | Joao Fonseca | Net, Hubert | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.4 | +2.4 | −5.9 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | +2.3 | −3.4 | |
| 3 | −3.2 | +3.1 | −6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Hubert Hurkacz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 45% | 4% 100% | 50% 50% |
| 2 | 40% 70% | 8% 50% | 52% 62% |
| 3 | 50% 47% | – | 50% 53% |
Set to set +0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.71 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Joao Fonseca serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 78% | 10% 50% | 48% 80% |
| 2 | 50% 85% | – | 50% 69% |
| 3 | 35% 75% | 4% 0% | 61% 79% |
Set to set −0.83 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Hubert Hurkacz
7.9 points left on the table across 266 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
Joao Fonseca
7.0 points left on the table across 257 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts