s Hertogenbosch · F · Grass · 15 Jun 2025
Gabriel Diallo v Zizou Bergs
84–74 in points · Gabriel Diallo won
Why it went the way it did
Gabriel Diallo won 5.6 more points than Zizou Bergs relative to what the serve alone predicted. Zizou Bergs's biggest leaks: return execution −2.4, serve 1st execution −2.1, serve 2nd execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gabriel Diallo | Zizou Bergs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.4 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.5 | −5.6 | −5.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −2.4 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +1.7 | +2.9 | +4.1 | −0.2 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +1.6 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.6 | +2.6 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +1.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.8 |
| All shots | −0.9 | +2.0 | −0.4 | +0.7 | −0.8 | +0.4 | −4.6 | −4.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Gabriel Diallo | Zizou Bergs | Net, Gabriel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.4 | −4.4 | +4.0 | |
| 2 | +1.1 | −0.6 | +1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gabriel Diallo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 73% | 15% 60% | 41% 79% |
| 2 | 49% 76% | 12% 80% | 40% 76% |
Set to set +0.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Zizou Bergs serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 71% | 13% 60% | 45% 56% |
| 2 | 37% 67% | 17% 71% | 46% 79% |
Set to set −0.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gabriel Diallo
6.6 points left on the table across 227 shots 2.90 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
Zizou Bergs
6.6 points left on the table across 223 shots 2.95 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts