Queens Club · SF · Grass · 21 Jun 2025
Roberto Bautista Agut v Carlos Alcaraz
57–73 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 10.3 more points than Roberto Bautista Agut relative to what the serve alone predicted. Roberto Bautista Agut's biggest leaks: backhand execution −1.2, slice shot selection −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roberto Bautista Agut | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +2.3 | +2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +1.8 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +2.5 | +4.2 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +1.7 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +3.2 | +4.9 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −1.0 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.0 | +0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −0.8 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +1.9 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +2.2 | +2.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +1.0 | +2.3 | +4.0 | +0.3 | +2.7 | +11.4 | +14.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Roberto Bautista Agut | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Roberto | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.8 | +6.1 | −5.3 | |
| 2 | +3.2 | +8.2 | −5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roberto Bautista Agut serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 57% | 14% 40% | 47% 65% |
| 2 | 53% 58% | 6% 50% | 42% 60% |
Set to set +0.68 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.95 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 77% | 14% 75% | 39% 73% |
| 2 | 47% 79% | 7% 0% | 47% 79% |
Set to set −1.42 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roberto Bautista Agut
4.2 points left on the table across 194 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH down the line ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
5.1 points left on the table across 211 shots 2.41 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.22 pts