ITF Palma Del Rio · Q2 · Hard · 22 Jun 2025
Kanako Morisaki v Matilde Jorge
44–63 in points · Matilde Jorge won
Why it went the way it did
Matilde Jorge won 7.9 more points than Kanako Morisaki relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kanako Morisaki's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.2, touch execution −1.2, backhand execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kanako Morisaki | Matilde Jorge | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.3 | +0.6 | +2.1 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +2.0 | +3.2 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.9 | −0.6 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +1.1 | +2.3 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +0.8 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −2.7 | +0.5 | −2.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +2.1 | +1.9 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +1.6 | −1.2 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +8.2 | +8.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Kanako Morisaki | Matilde Jorge | Net, Kanako | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.1 | +5.5 | −5.7 | |
| 2 | +1.1 | +3.4 | −2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kanako Morisaki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 17% | 38% 17% | 25% 50% |
| 2 | 48% 85% | 30% 50% | 22% 33% |
Within sets −1.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Matilde Jorge serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 62% | 32% 73% | 29% 40% |
| 2 | 47% 64% | 10% 67% | 43% 77% |
Set to set −1.64 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.61 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kanako Morisaki
4.7 points left on the table across 223 shots 2.12 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
Matilde Jorge
4.7 points left on the table across 203 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts