Washington · R32 · Hard · 22 Jul 2025
Ben Shelton v Mackenzie Mcdonald
64–43 in points · Ben Shelton won
Why it went the way it did
Ben Shelton won 12.4 more points than Mackenzie Mcdonald relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mackenzie Mcdonald's biggest leaks: return execution −4.5, forehand execution −2.3, serve 2nd execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ben Shelton | Mackenzie Mcdonald | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +1.9 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.7 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.5 | +1.7 | +2.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −4.5 | −4.4 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.1 | +2.0 | +3.2 | −0.2 | +1.4 | −2.3 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.6 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −1.3 | −1.1 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.1 | −1.3 | −2.7 | −0.2 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −0.6 |
| Net | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +1.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −1.0 |
| All shots | −0.8 | +0.6 | +3.2 | +3.1 | −0.7 | +1.3 | −10.0 | −9.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Ben Shelton | Mackenzie Mcdonald | Net, Ben | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.8 | −3.5 | +5.3 | |
| 2 | +1.3 | −5.8 | +7.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ben Shelton serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 91% | 17% 100% | 38% 67% |
| 2 | 61% 93% | 17% 50% | 22% 100% |
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mackenzie Mcdonald serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 53% | – | 35% 78% |
| 2 | 56% 47% | 3% 0% | 41% 79% |
Within sets +1.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ben Shelton
6.7 points left on the table across 156 shots 4.26 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.33 pts
Mackenzie Mcdonald
4.6 points left on the table across 148 shots 3.08 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts